Q1 Output Mostly Steady
Executive Summary
Several automakers have scaled back their robust first-quarter output plans, but on the whole the industry is still set to build 2.7% more cars and trucks than were assembled in like-2016.
The latest look at the auto industry’s adjusted first-quarter North American production plan shows a reduction of 41,400 units compared with a month ago, to 4,669,100 vehicles from 4,710,200.
However, the decline is due in large part to a lower-than expected Q1 slate at Ford, which has released its official Q1 program for the first time.
The Dearborn automaker’s January-March plans call for completion of 815,000 vehicles, 4.6% less that the 854,400 built in like-2016 and 30,600 fewer than WardsAuto had earlier forecast.
The Ford shortfall, which accounts for some 74% of the industry’s Q1 decline, was entirely on the truck side, where the official plan is 36,000 units under what had been forecast. Car output is 5,400 units higher.
FCA U.S. also adjusted its first-quarter slate downward by 6,800 units.
Most of the FCA cutback, 3,800 units, is in its U.S. car plants, where output is being rapidly phased out, along with a modest 1,500-unit cut at its large-car facility in Canada.
At the same time, FCA boosted first-quarter light-truck output in the U.S. by 15,000 vehicles, but that was offset by reductions in Canada and Mexico that left the automaker with a net truck deficit of 1,500 units.
General Motors also is paring North American car output by 16,000 units in January-March, 81% of it in the U.S. But light-truck output increases of 16,500 units, 14,000 in the U.S., yielded a net 500-unit overall gain.
Adjustments among the transplant manufacturers has resulted in a net decline of 4,000 cars and light trucks with cuts at BMW, Hyundai, Mazda and Nissan being partially offset by increases at Honda, Toyota and Volkswagen.
Other automakers, along with the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers left their first-quarter output plans unchanged.
Among the six leading automakers only GM, up 13.3%, is poised to best its prior-year Q1 production.
Of the remainder, Mazda, at 94.2% of year-ago, is the only one trailing like-2016, with gains elsewhere ranging from 4.6% at BMW to 72.3% at low-volume Tesla.
FCA, Ford and GM combined account for 49.8% of first-quarter output compared with 50.6% a year ago. Transplants have a 48.6% share compared with 47.4% and medium/heavy-duty truck makers, 1.6% vs. 2.0%.
