Haig Stoddard

Industry Analyst,
Production Cuts, Strong Sales Whittling Down U.S. Inventory 
U.S. light-vehicle sales next year likely will resume the 16.8 million-unit annual pace, or lower, 2017 was tracking before the results of the previous two months lifted the year-end trajectory to 17 million.
Inventory Control, Replacement Demand Cause Second Straight U.S. Sales Surge  5
Going into October, the industry was burdened with excess inventory of ’17 models, with dealer stocks an estimated 10% to 15% higher than necessary.
North American Production Looking Up in 2018, Despite More Cuts in 2017 
First-quarter 2018 production is expected to be relatively flat with like-2017’s 4.50 million units
Post-Hurricane Demand, High Inventory to Strengthen Year-End U.S. Sales 
How much inventory automakers are loaded with in December could determine the strength of a year-end sales surge to lower dealer stocks and shore up market shares.
U.S. Automakers Pump September Retail Volume to Pare Bloated Stocks 
The industry’s September retail push caused even both the raw volume and daily selling rates to post gains for the first time this year.
U.S. Sales Forecast Lowered for 2017 Despite Need to Cut Inventory 
Despite an August push on the retail end by GM to pare excess stocks, the rest of the industry for the most part did not follow suit and dealer inventory heading into September remains an estimated 15% to 20% too high for current demand.
August U.S. SAAR Dips to 4-Year Low 16.0 Million Units
August’s results made it much more problematic that volume for 2017 will breach the 17 million-unit level for the third straight year.
Slower Production Starting to Impact Excess U.S. Inventory 
Slower Production Starting to Impact Excess U.S. Inventory
U.S. Sales Decline Seventh Consecutive Month in July 
How market leader GM deals with its inventory surplus will determine the strength of a summer sell-down.
U.S. Q3 Could Play Big Part in Cutting Bloated Inventory, Final 2017 Sales 
The downside to artificially creating more demand this year to pare inventory is a greater pull-ahead of volume from 2018.
U.S. Sales Slide Accelerates in June 
Besides big production cuts, stronger price discounting will be needed to relieve the worsening dealer inventory burden.
Inventory Strategy to Determine U.S. Sales Volumes in 2017-2018 
Initial modeling for June indicates a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.9 million units, which would be an improvement, but not enough to make a dent in inventory without severe production cuts.
U.S. Sales Decline Fifth Straight Month in May 
Sales of CUVs declined year-over-year for only the second time since February 2012
Slowing U.S. Demand Not Helping Bloated Dealer Stocks 
WardsAuto is lowering its 2017 U.S. light-vehicle sales forecast to 17.1 million units.
April U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Year-to-Date Slide 
April marked the second straight month that some previously strong truck segments recorded slower demand on a year-over-year basis.


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