Haig Stoddard

Haig

Stoddard

Industry Analyst

WardsAuto

Email: hstoddard@wardsauto.com

Growth in Japan and India, the second and third largest markets in the region, respectively, plus some other countries, is more than offsetting China’s decline.

Despite solid gains by VW and its Audi luxury division, which together accounted for 20.3% of the market, combined sales of all other European auto makers in the WardsAuto group of 24 regions declined 7.2%.

Vehicle deliveries in Brazil dropped for a third straight month largely due to tighter credit and a newly imposed higher tax on imports. Both issues are expected to continue to have a negative impact on the market.

This year’s first-quarter capacity utilization, including medium- and heavy-duty trucks, soared to 86.1% compared with 72.3% year-ago, the most output for the quarter since WardsAuto began tracking production utilization in 2005.

Year-over-year increases likely will continue to improve, especially with hefty double-digit gains expected during the next several months, when comparisons with like-2011’s tsunami-ravaged market will be favorable.

Russia’s 24.5% spike returned it to the No.2 standing in Europe as its market penetration shot up to 16.7%.

March sales of midsize cars increased 18.5% from year-ago, and small car deliveries rose 10.7%.

An analysis by WardsAuto shows LV inventory, as measured by days’ supply, has been below traditional levels since mid-2009. By increasing capacity through new hires, overtime and additional shifts, auto makers are on a trajectory to normalize inventory.

For the 24 countries in the region tracked by WardsAuto, 20 of them within the European Union, 2011 saw the highest calendar-year result since 20.5 million units in 2008.

Combined January-February deliveries, including medium- and heavy-duty trucks, totaled 775,659 units, for a 2.2% gain on year-ago’s 759,162. The tally includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela.

January’s estimated 13.3% decline followed a weak 2.3% increase in December that capped a record sales year in 2011 of 31,682,734 units, albeit just 0.4% ahead of 2010’s 31,550,185.

Manufacturers, including those building medium- and heavy-duty trucks, posted a 74.1% capacity-utilization rate in fourth-quarter 2011, the best since 75.3% in 2005. The rate was 62.6% in fourth-quarter 2010.

Argentina, Brazil and Colombia posted their best January sales in at least seven years, with Argentina recording its 27th consecutive year-over-year increase.

The WardsAuto forecast is based on anticipated industry and economic growth that should become more in line with long-term historical trends that were disrupted by the debacle of the 2008-2009 U.S. financial collapse and recession.

Last month’s SAAR was 15.0 million units, the highest for any month since 15.5 million in February 2008. It also marks a considerable hike from January’s 14.1 million and year-ago’s 13.2 million.

Auto companies sold 6.56 million vehicles worldwide in April, a 3.4% increase over same-month year-ago, raising total deliveries for the first four months of 2012 to 27.2 million units.

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Haig Stoddard

Articles by Haig Stoddard

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