Haig Stoddard

Industry Analyst,
Trucks Could Nudge 70% Share in December as U.S. Sales Likely Post Another 17 Million-Plus SAAR 
U.S. demand will have to stay close to the 17 million-unit SAAR level early next year for inventory not to again become a problem of excess.
U.S. Sales Surge Above a 17-Million SAAR Third Straight Month 
If the redesigned Accord replicates the success of the new Camry, the midsize-car group just might become a 2-vehicle segment.
First-Quarter 2018 North American Output Set for Downturn 
Nearly all manufacturers are slated for year-over-year shortfalls in Q1 2018, with the few exceptions being those that recently have added capacity and new products to their North American footprint.
Production Cuts, Strong Sales Whittling Down U.S. Inventory 
U.S. light-vehicle sales next year likely will resume the 16.8 million-unit annual pace, or lower, 2017 was tracking before the results of the previous two months lifted the year-end trajectory to 17 million.
Inventory Control, Replacement Demand Cause Second Straight U.S. Sales Surge  5
Going into October, the industry was burdened with excess inventory of ’17 models, with dealer stocks an estimated 10% to 15% higher than necessary.
North American Production Looking Up in 2018, Despite More Cuts in 2017 
First-quarter 2018 production is expected to be relatively flat with like-2017’s 4.50 million units
Post-Hurricane Demand, High Inventory to Strengthen Year-End U.S. Sales 
How much inventory automakers are loaded with in December could determine the strength of a year-end sales surge to lower dealer stocks and shore up market shares.
U.S. Automakers Pump September Retail Volume to Pare Bloated Stocks 
The industry’s September retail push caused even both the raw volume and daily selling rates to post gains for the first time this year.
U.S. Sales Forecast Lowered for 2017 Despite Need to Cut Inventory 
Despite an August push on the retail end by GM to pare excess stocks, the rest of the industry for the most part did not follow suit and dealer inventory heading into September remains an estimated 15% to 20% too high for current demand.
August U.S. SAAR Dips to 4-Year Low 16.0 Million Units
August’s results made it much more problematic that volume for 2017 will breach the 17 million-unit level for the third straight year.
Slower Production Starting to Impact Excess U.S. Inventory 
Slower Production Starting to Impact Excess U.S. Inventory
U.S. Sales Decline Seventh Consecutive Month in July 
How market leader GM deals with its inventory surplus will determine the strength of a summer sell-down.
U.S. Q3 Could Play Big Part in Cutting Bloated Inventory, Final 2017 Sales 
The downside to artificially creating more demand this year to pare inventory is a greater pull-ahead of volume from 2018.
U.S. Sales Slide Accelerates in June 
Besides big production cuts, stronger price discounting will be needed to relieve the worsening dealer inventory burden.
Inventory Strategy to Determine U.S. Sales Volumes in 2017-2018 
Initial modeling for June indicates a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.9 million units, which would be an improvement, but not enough to make a dent in inventory without severe production cuts.


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