Haig Stoddard

Industry Analyst,
Month-End Promos, Incentives Lift November U.S. Sales 
Falling average transaction prices indicate discounting has intensified over the past two months.
Forecast November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Leave Potential for Record Year 
November-December projections point to 2016 sales volume ending slightly above 17.4 million units, barely topping 2015’s record of 17.396 million.
North American Capacity Utilization to Slide Below 100% in 2017 
While capacity utilization in the U.S. and Canada will decline in 2017, Mexico’s facilities will increase to 104%.
U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory Climbs to Record October High 
October inventory levels portend a combination of increased market spiffs and production cuts as the industry adjusts to flattening demand after seven years of growth.
October U.S Light-Vehicle Sales Hit Best SAAR in 2016 
Year-to-date volume lags 2015 for the first time this year, but should rebound above last year in November.
U.S. Dealer Inventory Hits Record September High 
A fierce battle in the fourth quarter could be brewing among pickups as higher inventory and fresh products heat up the competition.
September U.S. LV Sales Rebound Second Time in Four Months 
If recent monthly sales patterns continue in October, expect a strong end of the year, with volumes gaining momentum in November and December.
August U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory Remains at 12-Year High 
Demand is expected to rise over the final five months of 2016, but elevated inventory levels mean production likely won’t match it.
August U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Miss Expectations 
August’s results cast more doubt 2016 will finish ahead of last year’s record 17.38 million units.
July U.S. Inventory Hits 12-Year High 
Pickups and SUVs are the battlegrounds to look for signs of U.S. sales heating up in the next few months.
July U.S. Sales Jump to 8-Month High SAAR 
Increased price discounting led to a rise in July retail sales, reversing the softness recorded in June.
Outlook Points to North American Plants Dipping Below 100% Capacity 
New capacity coming through 2019 will alleviate a few pressure points created by the industry running at 100%-plus straight-time.
Slower Demand Lifts U.S. LV Inventory to 10-Year June High 
An indicator of whether U.S. sales end 2016 higher than 2015 could be how the market’s Top 3 players – General Motors, Ford and Toyota – react to a possible downturn in demand.
U.S. Sales End First-Half 2016 on Soft Note 
How GM, Ford and Toyota react to the downturn – whether streamlining production, raising market incentives or a combination of both – could determine the year’s final outcome.
May U.S. LV Inventory Dips More Than Expected  1
Flat North American production, and additional selling days in June and July, will lift sales volumes, perhaps allowing the industry to avoid a huge summer sell-off.

Dec 6, 2016

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