Haig Stoddard

Industry Analyst,
May U.S. LV Inventory Dips More Than Expected  1
Flat North American production, and additional selling days in June and July, will lift sales volumes, perhaps allowing the industry to avoid a huge summer sell-off.
U.S. Sales Record Modest Rebound in May 
May’s import penetration of 22% brought the year-to-date share to 21.6%, the period’s highest in four years.
North American Capacity Utilization Peaking In First-Half 2016 
Despite falling utilization rates, production is forecast to increase year-over-year during the remainder of 2016.
Import Volume Drives April U.S. Inventory to 11-Year High 
June and July will be high-volume months and excess inventory could be lopped off then, especially if SAARs return to their previous strength.
April U.S. Sales Bounce Back to 17 Million-Plus Annual Level 
Growth in the past two months has been in sectors where a lot of volume goes into commercial fleets and for work-related purposes.
March U.S. Sales Sink to Long-Time Low SAAR 
April’s SAAR is likely to spike upward from March, but because it is a rarity for two consecutive months to have more selling days than normal, averaging the totals for both months will be best to judge the period’s results.
Vans, Luxury Trucks Help CUVs Lead U.S. Sales to February Gain 
Small vans continued their resurgence as February deliveries jumped 33.7% above year-ago with nearly every vehicle posting hefty gains.
Robust January U.S. Dealer Inventory Foreshadows Strong February Sales 
Despite the industry overall doing a good job of controlling inventory levels of slow-selling vehicles, some cutting still is needed in cars.
January U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Start 2016 With Strong Results
The major market shift to trucks continued in 2016 with light-truck penetration recording a January record of 58.7%.
Sluggish Car Demand Keeping North American Plants from 100% Capacity 
Several plants building cars will stay below full capacity, even with light-vehicle sales expected to continue hefty year-over-year gains in the first six months of 2016.
U.S. Dealer Stocks Portend No Significant Letup in January Sales 
Continued record U.S. sales volumes and lower domestically built inventory will not necessarily translate into significantly higher North American production gains in 2016.
U.S. Market Ekes Out Record 17.4 Million Light-Vehicle Sales  1
Falling pump prices helped trucks record penetration of 61% in December, while cutbacks in incentives further dampened car deliveries.
North America Production Will Hit 18 Million Next Year 
Truck penetration in the U.S. could easily top 60% in 2016 if fuel prices continue to decline while also straining capacity at several North American plants.
U.S. LV Inventory Rises 1.5% as Industry Heads Into Record Setting December 
With some vehicles potentially in tight supply, automakers might need to goose incentives to reach a fourth straight 18 million-unit SAAR.
November U.S. Sales Exceed 18 Million SAAR Third Straight Month 
The current U.S. sales record of 17.35 million units set in 2000 likely will fall in 2015, only to be broken again in 2016.


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