Haig Stoddard

Haig
Stoddard
Industry Analyst,
WardsAuto
Articles
January U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory Falls to 3.9% Below Year-Ago Levels 
With some exceptions, mostly of redesigned models, big cuts to planned car production remain in the cards.
U.S. Sales Start 2018 With a Lower SAAR But Still Strong Overall 
With CUVs hitting a record 38.6% market share in January, it’s just a matter of time before penetration tops 40%.
First-Quarter 2018 N. American Production Set for 2.6% Decline 
Manufacturers anticipating increases mostly are those that have added capacity and new products to their North American footprint since last year.
U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory in Good Stead Heading into 2018 
A danger could be that if sales begin to taper off in the second quarter, over-optimism about underlying demand could lead to production overbuilds as happened in first-half 2017.
U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Top 17 Million Third Straight Year in 2017 
Trucks surged to 69% of the market in December, lifting total sales for 2017 to 11.06 million units, or nearly two-thirds of total demand.
First-Quarter 2018 North American Production Outlook Cut 50,000 Units 
Bucking recent trends, the reduction in the first-quarter 2018 production outlook will result more from cuts in trucks, as well as in total output in Mexico.
Trucks Could Nudge 70% Share in December as U.S. Sales Likely Post Another 17 Million-Plus SAAR 
U.S. demand will have to stay close to the 17 million-unit SAAR level early next year for inventory not to again become a problem of excess.
U.S. Sales Surge Above a 17-Million SAAR Third Straight Month 
If the redesigned Accord replicates the success of the new Camry, the midsize-car group just might become a 2-vehicle segment.
First-Quarter 2018 North American Output Set for Downturn 
Nearly all manufacturers are slated for year-over-year shortfalls in Q1 2018, with the few exceptions being those that recently have added capacity and new products to their North American footprint.
Production Cuts, Strong Sales Whittling Down U.S. Inventory 
U.S. light-vehicle sales next year likely will resume the 16.8 million-unit annual pace, or lower, 2017 was tracking before the results of the previous two months lifted the year-end trajectory to 17 million.
Inventory Control, Replacement Demand Cause Second Straight U.S. Sales Surge  5
Going into October, the industry was burdened with excess inventory of ’17 models, with dealer stocks an estimated 10% to 15% higher than necessary.
North American Production Looking Up in 2018, Despite More Cuts in 2017 
First-quarter 2018 production is expected to be relatively flat with like-2017’s 4.50 million units
Post-Hurricane Demand, High Inventory to Strengthen Year-End U.S. Sales 
How much inventory automakers are loaded with in December could determine the strength of a year-end sales surge to lower dealer stocks and shore up market shares.
U.S. Automakers Pump September Retail Volume to Pare Bloated Stocks 
The industry’s September retail push caused even both the raw volume and daily selling rates to post gains for the first time this year.
U.S. Sales Forecast Lowered for 2017 Despite Need to Cut Inventory 
Despite an August push on the retail end by GM to pare excess stocks, the rest of the industry for the most part did not follow suit and dealer inventory heading into September remains an estimated 15% to 20% too high for current demand.
Insights

Jan 18, 2018
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