Counting Cars

July Sales Thread: July SAAR Second Best Since December 2007

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Toyota bests Ford, Honda outsells Chrysler. Industry LV SAAR tracking at 15.6 million units.

July 2013 Light Vehicle Sales Volume:
WardsAuto forecast LV Sales:              1.310 million units
Actual July LV sales:                  1.309 million units
Volume differential - 698 units, 0.05%.

July 2013 Light Vehicle SAAR:
WardsAuto forecast:        15.62 million
Actual July LV SAAR:       15.61 million
Differentail between WardsAuto forecast and actual SAAR - 0.0001%.
 

WardsAuto tracks light vehicle (LV) sales throughout the day. Year-over-year change represents the change in daily sales rate (DSR). July had 25 selling days this year and 25 selling days in 2012. June 2013 had 26 selling days.

Company results appear in the timeline below.

After some push-pull over the course of the day, industry sales finished almost exactly in line with WardsAuto's forecast for the month, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.61 million units - below June's 15.9 million, but still the second best SAAR since December 2007.

2:40 Hyundai's 66,005 deliveries equated to a 2.2% rise in July DSR. Volvo  completed the industry sales reporting for July with a 0.7% decline in daily sales. The industry's 1.31 million sales represented a 9.3% increase in daily sales versus same month year-ago, and left the industry YTD volume at 9.1 million units, 8.4% over same-period 2012.

2:00 PM: With just Hyundai and Volvo to report projected SAAR rises to 15.58 million with Daimler and Mitsubishi reports. Daimler had 26,444 LV deliveries in July up 13.7% over year-ago, ahead of the company's 10.5% YTD gain on 2012. Mitsubishi logged a 19.7% improvement in July, but still lags 2012 YTD by 3.7%.

1:35: Toyota daily sales rise 12.6% on 193,394 deliveries. That puts Toyota in the No. 2 sales spot in July, the first time the company has outsold Ford since September. It also marks the first time that Toyota was No. 2 and Honda No. 4 in the same month since July 2010. BMW's sales were up 6%, on unit sales of 29,993 BMW and Mini brand vehicles.

1:10 PM: Honda reports a very strong July - in line with expecations - with a 16.1% year-over-year gain in July deliveries, besting Chrysler's monthly LV sales for the first time since April 2011. There's at least a chane chance Toyota will beat Ford this month as well. Mazda DSR was up 24.1% this month, on nearly 25,000 deliveries.

1:00 PM: Kia daily sales were down 2.1% to 49,004 units in July - in line with forecast volume. Overall Kia sales to date are down 3.1% in 2013 versus the first seven-month of 2012. Jaguar Land Rover had a better than expected month, with daiy sales jumping 25.5% on 5,663 unit sales.

11:25 AM: Projected SAAR dips to 15.45 with Nissan sales report - again pointing to a fall-off in end-of-month sales versus the robust early month sales. Nissan sold 109,041 vehicles, up 6.4% over year-ago - a very strong July result for the Japanese company, but again, just below WardsAuto expectations. VW's sister company  was up nearly the same percentat that Volkswagen was down, liftin daily sales 7.1% this month. Audi YTD sales are tracking 13.6% ahead of last year, making the German auto company one of the fastest growing brands in the U.S.

10:25 AM: With GM in, Detroit 3 finish July up 8.5% for the month, and 10.2% over YTD 2012. Subaru posts 35,994 deliveries in July, up 37.2%. Projected SAAR sites at 15.5 million.

10:20 AM: General Motors' 234,071, directly in line with WardsAuto forecast, represents an 11.7% lift in DSR. Cruze daily sales were up 63.4% over a weak year-ago July, despite low inventory at the beginning of the month. And Silverado DSR was up 39.4%.

10:00 AM: Ford reports Ford/Lincoln sold 188,714 light vehicles - up 6.4% over year ago - in line with expectations. Lifts projected SAAR somewhat, to 15.53 MLN. Ford had a very good month with small cars - Fiesta, Focus and C-Max combined. But it's prime sellers, as expected, struggled with low inventories. Focus DSR was down 2.2%; Fusion DSR down 15.5%; and Escape DSR was off 0.6%.

9:50: Volkswagen, like Chrysler, reports strong-ish July sales numbers, but undershoots WardsAuto forecast, with VW's DSR falling 7.2% versus same-month year-ago. Did we expect too much? Still early.

9:30 AM: Chrysler first auto maker to report. The company's 138,701 LV sales sales lifted its DSR 6.1% over year-ago. The results were lower than WardsAuto's forecast - which reflected early reports that Chrysler was on track to sell nearly 10,000 more units this month. But the result supports WardsAuto's overall contention that hot early-month sales across the industry would cool off in the last 10 days, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate for the industry well below June's 67-month high SAAR of 15.9  million.

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John Sousanis

John Sousanis oversees WardsAuto data operations as Director of Information Content, and is Ward’sAuto sales analyst. Follow John on Twitter @CountingCars.  

Haig Stoddard

Haig Stoddard is a veteran automotive industry analyst. His current focus is North America production and longterm sales forecasting.
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