Counting Cars

November Sales Thread: (FINAL) Post-Superstorm Bounce Catapults SAAR to 15.46 Million

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Post-Sandy bump bolsters year-end sales momentum, pushes November SAAR to a 58-month high.

November 2012 Light Vehicle Sales Volume:
WardsAuto forecast: 1.121 million units
Actual sales: 1.139 million units
Forecast/Actual Differential:1.6%

November 2012 Light Vehicle SAAR:
WardsAuto forecast: 15.23 million
Actual SAAR: 15.46 million

U.S. Sales Summary Table: Company by Company results.

With bounce-back sales from Superstorm Sandy adding to year-end sales momentum, strong year-over-year results pushed the November SAAR to its highest level since January 2008. Sales updates below -

5:45 Suzuki reports sales of 2,224 units. LV total final. SAAR Finishes at 15.46 million and change, a hair above the February 2008 SAAR, making November's adjusted sales rated the highest in 58 Months

5:00 With WardsAuto estimating Suzuki sales at 2,217 units, based on stock changes, auto makers in the U.S. sold 1.14 million vehicles million

3:50 PM With only market-exiting Suzuki left to post, the U.S. LV SAAR sits balance almost exactly at the February 2008 rate. Depending on the small auto maker's report, November's sales rate will round to either 15.4 million or 15.5 million, and will be the highest seasonally adjusted rate since either February or January 2008.

2:15 PM An hour afer BMW Group posted its best sales month ever, Daimler followed suit, reporting a 15.6% increase in sales of its Mercedes, Smart, and Sprinter vehicles compared to year-ago. Volvo had a strong month as well, up 26.8%, helping lift the Europeans auto makers to a combined year-over-year gain of 26.2% Only Jaguar Land Rover reported a decline (-7%) in November sales versus same-month 2011.

Mazda reported a 17.7% increase in sales for the month, coming in some 9% better than expectations.

1:15 AM: BMW Group does Hyundai, Kia and Honda one better, setting not only a November sales record, but a single-month sales volume record, delivering 36,461 BMW and Mni vehicles.

1:00 PM: Honda reports a 38.9% jump in sales over year-ago - strong Civic (+75%) and Accord sales (+82%), both versus stock-challenged year-ago results, lead auto maker to best November ever -"surpassing salesrecords set pre-recession, a true sign that our business has recovered," according to Honda spokesperson.

With Top 7 auto makers all reporting, estimated SAAR for the month is currently above 15.3 million.

12:30 PM: Kia rolls in after lunch with a 12.9% pop in deliveries vs. last year, while Prosche adds to the Euro-tally, up a whopping 71.4% over year-ago, with just under 3,900 November sales. 10:30 AM: Detroit 3 sales up 6.9% in November, up 8.1% YTD. Both Ford and GM tracking under 5% gains on 2011. Chrysler is up nearly 22% for the first 11 months. 

10:00 AM: A wave of new reports - Ford LV sales up 5.8%, slightly better than expected - despite weak Fusion sales, related to a slow production ramp up/low inventory.

GM up just 3.4% - lowest of ANY auto makers reporting so far - with 186,505 light deliveries.

Toyota hits WardsAuto forecast mark - up 17.2% over 2011, with 161,696 sales.

Nissan, meanwhile, blows past expectations, with 96,167 November sales - up 12.9% versus a good year-ago. VW gained 29.3% year/year, while stablemate Audi upped sales 24.4% vs. yr.-ago.

9:55 AM: WardsAuto analyst Haig Stoddard point out, though, that Chrysler's 4,489 Dart sales tally is lower than the last couple months. "And that's after inventory jumped to over 23,000 units ... "wonder how long the Belvidere plant can justify three shifts without some big inventives on Dart?"

9:45 Subaru sales also strong - versus inventory-weakened year-ago sales - up 59.7%.

9:30 AM:Chrysler reports 121,886 light vehicle sales in October, up 14.4% over same-month year ago.

WardsAuto analyst Haig Stoddard point out, though, that Chrysler's 4,489 Dart sales tally is lower than the last couple months. "And that's after inventory jumped to over 23,000 units ... "wonder how long the Belvidere plant can justify three shifts without some big inventives on Dart?"

Hyundai brand sales reached 53,487 units, up 7.8% against a strong same-month 2011 result. Subaru sales also strong - versus inventory-weakened year-ago sales - up 59.7%.

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Blogs and commentary about automotive data, industry trends, and the future of the auto industry.

Contributors

John Sousanis

John Sousanis oversees WardsAuto data operations as Director of Information Content, and is Ward’sAuto sales analyst. Follow John on Twitter @CountingCars.  

Haig Stoddard

Haig Stoddard is a veteran automotive industry analyst. His current focus is North America production and longterm sales forecasting.
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