Counting Cars

November Sales Thread (FINAL): SAAR Soars Past 16 Million

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Strong retail sales lifted the U.S. LV SAAR to its highest level in over six-and-a-half years.

November 2013 Light Vehicle Sales Volume:
WardsAuto forecast LV Sales:   1.21 million units
Acutal LV sales:                        1.24 million units

November 2013 Light Vehicle SAAR:
WardsAuto forecast LV SAAR:  15.9 million
Actual SAAR:                            16.3 million

WardsAuto tracks light vehicle (LV) sales throughout sales reporting day. Year-over-year change represents the change in daily sales rate (DSR). November had 26 selling days this year and 25 selling days in 2012. October had 27 selling days.

November LV sales, directionally in line with WardsAuto's earlier forecast, experienced a much bigger retail bounce than anticipated, pushing the monthly SAAR past the 16.3 million-unit mark to its highest level since February 2007.

The sales spike was a result of very strong retail sales, likely bolstered by payback of sales lost in October due to consumer angst surrounding that month's federal-government shutdown.

Automakers sold 1,238,322 vehicles in November, a 4.5% increase in DSR compared to same-month year-ago. The monthly sales brought year-to-date U.S. LV deliveries to 14.18 million-units, up 8.3% over same-period year-ago.

2:20 Daimler reported 37,367 LV deliveries, including Mercedes-Benz, Sprinter and Smart vehicles in November, lifting its DSR 10% over year-ago. Daimler sales are up 12.1% YTD.

2:00 PM: Honda reported its second-best November ever, (behind November 2012) with daily sales dropping 3.9% from year-ago. Honda's 2013 sales are tracking 7.8% over year-ago for the first 11 months of the year.

Asia-based automakers combined for a 3.7% increase in November daily sales. The group's sales are up 7.2% YTD. 

 

12:40 PM: Kia joined sister-automaker Hyundai in reporting best-November-ever deliveries. The company's 45,411 unit sales represented a 6.4% increase in DSR, and brought the company's YTD sales to within 3.3% of last year's 11-month total.

Mazda's DSR dropped 8% for the month, with unit sales of 20,754, but the company's YTD sales volume is up 4.5%.

12:30 PM: Land Rover brand had its best November ever, while stablemate Jaguar reported more than double 2012's November sales, lifting JLR's monthly DSR 32.1% over year-ago, on total volume sales of just over 6,000. Jaguar Land Rover sales for the year so far are up 20.6%.

Mitsubish reported 6,071 deliveries, up 62.3% over year-ago's tepid results, helping lift the automaker's YTD sales 3.9% over same-period 2012.

11:00 AM: Reports have Hyundai delivering 56,005 - a November sale volume record for the South Korean automaker - lifting its daily sales 0.7% over year-ago, and bringing its YTD deliveries 2.2% over like year-ago.

10:45 AM: Ford's 185,200 LV deliveries represented a 2.5% rise in daily sales versus year-ago - a modest rise reflecting weak November fleet sales, as well as a comparatively strong year-ago result. Ford's YTD sales gain, however, leads Detroit Three automakers, at 11.4% through 11 months. Collectively, Chrysler, Ford and GM daily sales were up 7.4% in November, while total January through Novvember deliveries and up 9.8%

10:30 AM: General Motors reported retail sales were up 19% on volume over year-ago, but as expected, fleet orders were slow, holding GM's November deliveries slightly below WardsAuto expectations at 212,060 units - a 9.3% daily sales improvement over year-ago, slightly better than the company's 8.8% YTD gain.

Nissan, on the other hand, exceeded WardsAuto's forecast substantially, reporting 106,528 LV sales, up 6.5% over year-ago November. The automaker's YTD sales are running  9.2% over year-ago.

10:15 AM: Volkswagen and Audi were the first European automakers to report. VW's DSR fell 19.6%, further hurting the company's YTD performance, which is now 5.2% under same-period year-ago. Audi, meanwhile, reported an 8.7% increase in daily sales for the month. The automaker's Jan-Nov sales are 13.3% higher than they were last year.

10 AM: Chrysler reported over 10,000 deliveries of its new '14 Jeep Cherokee, which helped catapult the automaker's November LV sales to just over 141,000 units, lifting daily sales 11.4% over same-month year-ago, and raising its YTD tally 9.4% over like-2012. 

Toyota improved its DSR 5.9% over year-ago, with deliveries of 178,044 units, below the company's 8.3% YTD sales gain.

Subaru sales climbed nearly 25% in November, with YTD deliveries running 28.2% over the first 11 months of 2012.

 

 

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John Sousanis

John Sousanis oversees WardsAuto data operations as Director of Information Content, and is Ward’sAuto sales analyst. Follow John on Twitter @CountingCars.  

Haig Stoddard

Haig Stoddard is a veteran automotive industry analyst. His current focus is North America production and longterm sales forecasting.
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