Counting Cars

October Sales Thread: (FINAL) October SAAR Finishes Below Trend

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October daily sales rose 6.5% in October, but the monthly SAAR finished below Q3 and YTD rates.

October 2013 Light Vehicle Sales Volume:
WardsAuto forecast LV Sales:   1.22 million units
Actual LV sales:                         1.20 million units

October 2013 Light Vehicle SAAR:
WardsAuto forecast LV SAAR:  15.37 million
Actual SAAR:                             15.15 million
Differential between forecast and actual: 1.3%
 

WardsAuto tracks light vehicle (LV) sales throughout the day. Year-over-year change represents the change in daily sales rate (DSR). October had 27 selling days this year and 26 selling days in 2012. August had 23 selling days.

WardsAuto's forecast was more pessimistic than the consensus forecast for October, calling for 15.4 milion SAAR based on a projected cooling of sales associated with the government shutdown and lackluster employment reports.

But light-vehicle sales fell below even WardsAuto's forecast, finishing with a SAAR of 15.17 million units on a sales volume of 1.2 million LVs. Daily sales for the month were up 6.5% over year-ago, compared to the YTD year-to-year gain of 8.3%.

Company results appear in the timeline below:

1:25 PM: Honda sales came in slightly below WardsAuto's modest projections, as the automaker delivered 114, 538 LVs, outpacing year-ago DSR by 3.1%. Honda YTD sales are 8.5% over like-2012.

Daimler was one of the few companies to outperform expectations - with 32,650 LV deliveries of Mercedes, Smart, and Sprinter vehicles lifting the automaker's DSR 17.9% over year-ago, with YTD sales running 11.8% over same-period 2012.

1:00 PM: BMW reported sales of 33,274 units, nearly flat with year-ago. BMW's YTD sales are up 10.6% through October.

Audi outperformed sister-company Volkswagen, with daily sales rising 6.9%, but the company's monthly gain was well below its 13.4% YTD growth.

12:30 PM: Mazda sold more vehicle than in had in any October since 2007. But the company's daily sales were up just 2.1% over year-ago, compared to its 10-month YTD sales, which are 5.3% higher than year-ago. The sales fell significantly below expectations based on September/October performance trends over the past several years

11:40 AM: Toyota reported sales just below 169,000 units for Oct., below WardsAuto's aggressive forecast for the automaker, but 4% over year-ago's DSR. Toyota sales throught October are leading year-ago by 8.1%.

Porsche reported October daily sales 6.8% above year-ago.  Jaguar Land Rover had a very strong October, with daily sales up 45.9%. JLR's YTD sales are up 19%.

11:00 AM: Subaru sales continue to outperform year-ago by double digit percentages. The automaker's October sales were up 27.1% over year-ago, with YTD sales tracking 28.1% over same-period 2012.

10:35 AM: Nissan reported its highest volume October ever, with 91,018 deliveries, up 10% over year-ago, The automaker's YTD sales are up 9.1%.

Hyundai daily sales were up 2.6% on 53,555 LV sales. Hyundai sales through 10 months are tracking 2% higher than year ago.

Volkswagen sales came in markedly below expectation, with 28,129 unit sales equating to a 21.1% drop in DSR vs. year-ago. The company's sales are lagging year-ago by 4% for the Jan-Oct period.

10 AM: Detroit 3 LV sales came in directly in line with WardsAuto’s forecast, but the mix was considerably different.

General Motors had a very strong month, coming in nearly 20,000 units ahead of expectations, with 226,402 deliveries, lifting daily sales 11.4% over year-ago. GM’s 2013 YTD sales are tracking 8.3% over same-period 2012

Ford’s DSR rose 10% on LV deliveries of 187,675 units, pushing YTD sales 11.9% ahead over year-ago.

Chrysler sales slipped well below expectations, with daily sales up 6.9% on October LV deliveries of 139,128 vehicles. Chrysler’s YTD sales for the first 10 months are up 8.8%.

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Contributors

John Sousanis

John Sousanis oversees WardsAuto data operations as Director of Information Content, and is Ward’sAuto sales analyst. Follow John on Twitter @CountingCars.  

Haig Stoddard

Haig Stoddard is a veteran automotive industry analyst. His current focus is North America production and longterm sales forecasting.
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