Fuel prices assumptions - looking ahead

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jsousanis's picture
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Joined: 2011-06-14

How high would gas prices need to be to make the smaller car segment outpace CUVs in the U.S.? How high would gas need to be to spur (significant) diesel sales?

(Submitted at the WardsAuto Outlook Conference, March 11, 2014.)

hstoddard's picture
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Joined: 2011-12-30

To spur small cars and CUVs for the long term, I think gas prices would have to hit $4.00 a gallon and stay there. For the short-term (one to three months), there would be a knee-jerk reaction if gas hit $3.80 or $3.90 that temporarily lifts small light vehicles. For diesel, I give the same answer above for pickups or other body-on-frame trucks. However, I think for cars and CUVs, hybrid and electric would pick up before any significant shift to diesel.

dzoia's picture
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Joined: 2011-06-14

Agree with Haig. And once people get used to $4/gallon, could see them migrating back to larger vehicles, particularly as fuel economy in those models continues to improve. Diesels should get a little push through greater availability, with more applications on the way from Volkswagen/Audi, Mercedes and BMW and new diesels coming from Mazda and potentially other volume-segment brands.

curtjohnson456's picture
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Joined: 2014-06-26

Hi,
That's why I really like fiat 500 electric car and I no need to worry about the fuel and gas price.

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