By Bernie Woodall
NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - The Fourth of July will do more to kick-start summer driving in the United States this year than did Memorial Day, generally thought of as the launch pad for vacation driving, travel analysts said on Friday.
A rainy spring on the East Coast, a weak economy and a school year that extends far into June for many districts helped put the brakes on motoring around the late May Memorial Day holiday, they said.
July 4 this year falls on a Friday, making the holiday a three-day affair for most Americans as the East Coast dries up, the economy seems to be rebounding if not robust, and school is out for summer.
"I think there is more confidence on the part of the American public on doing the normal things. And what's more normal than traveling on the Fourth of July," said Jerry Cheske, spokesman for the American Automobile Association (AAA).
The AAA has forecast auto travel on the July 4 weekend will be the highest in nine years.
After a sluggish start -- May auto travel is down from a year ago -- overall summer driving in the United States will be up 2 percent this year, said Cathy Keefe of the Travel Industry Association of America.
Considering that 80 percent of U.S. travel is done by auto already, a 2 percent increase in car travel is huge, Keefe said.
Gasoline prices are about 10 cents higher this year -- at $1.49 a gallon -- than in 2002, but that will matter little to the demand for fuel, said analysts. Only when price swings are really big, such as in 2000, when the national average retail price was about $1.62 a gallon, does use dramatically dip.
Some, fearful of terror attacks or mindful of the low amount of discretionary spending available, are shortening their vacations, keeping closer to home and perhaps camping or staying with relatives, the analysts said.
But they are still traveling, Keefe said.
She said the average round-trip driving holiday in the United States is 700 miles.
Figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show gasoline demand in May fell below expectations, said Dave Costello of the EIA.
Preliminary figures for May show gasoline demand -- as demonstrated in deliveries to terminals before being trucked to gasoline stations -- was 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 9.08 million bpd in 2002 and less than the expectations of between 9.05 million and 9.1 million bpd, said Costello.
"That's a fairly significant fall-off from last year and our earlier expectations," Costello said.
Higher prices in March combined with the U.S.-led attack on Iraq to cause national jitters that dampened demand and seeped strength from the economy, he said.
"The prices are down (from spring). The projections are that the economy is going to get better," he added.
The EIA therefore is predicting that, in the third-quarter of 2003, U.S. gasoline demand will be a robust 9.14 million bpd, up from 9.06 million bpd for the same period in 2002.