A boost in U.S. new-vehicle sales, including models undergoing major redesigns, will come from midsize cars and cross/utility vehicles over the next three years.
Indeed, nearly 60% of the all-new and revamped products bowing in 2013 timeframe will come from those two segments, WardsAuto analysis finds.
Somewhat surprisingly, with fuel prices stuck at historic highs and stricter corporate average fuel economy standards on the way, there is no surge of new product planned for the Small Car and Small CUV segments.
The analysis of new-vehicle volume is based on a WardsAuto 12-month sales forecast beginning with the start-of-sale date for each new product from 2013 through 2015. The 2013 timeframe includes volume from new vehicles introduced in 2012.
WardsAuto forecasts that 2.4 million sales in 2013 will be new products, equal to 16.2% of total light-vehicle sales. That share will fall to 13.1%, or 2.0 million units, in 2014 and 14.9%, or 2.3 million, in 2015.
The Middle Car segment will make up 36.0% of 2013’s new product volume, while Midsize CUVs will account for 23.3%, for a 59.3% combined share. The two segments will represent 31.2% of new-product sales in 2014 and 43.6% in 2015.
Middle Car new-product sales in 2013 will be spurred by redesigns launching in 2012 but that still will have a large impact on next year’s market. They include the Ford Fusion, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima. The ’14 Chevrolet Impala, to be overhauled early next year, also will play a major role in 2013.
In 2014, a new Chrysler 200, Honda Insight and Subaru Legacy will pace new Middle Car sales. With help from overflow Legacy volume, 2015 will be aided by redesigned versions of the Hyundai Sonata and Toyota Prius.
Fullsize-pickup trucks also will drive new-product volume in 2014 and 2015.
Led by General Motors’ redesigned Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra, both of which will launch sales in the latter part of 2013, pickups will account for 29.4% of new-product volume in 2014.
Ford’s upcoming redo of the F-150 and the return of the Colorado, Canyon and revamped Nissan Titan also will help boost new-pickup volume in 2014, as well as support the segment’s 25.6% of new-product sales in 2015.
Combined sales of new Small Cars and Small CUVs will be relatively steady in new-product volume over the next three years, but they will not match the Midsize Cars and CUVs and Pickup segments.
In 2013, combined sales of the Small Car and CUV sectors will account for 15.6% of new-product sales. That share will rise slightly to 17.2% in 2014 and slip to 16.9% in 2015.
There will be some significant redesigns in the Small Car segment group. The ’13 Nissan Sentra goes on sale at the end of this year but will see most of its 12-month volume in 2013. Next year also will see redesigns for the Toyota Corolla and Kia Forte.
Highlighting the Small CUV segment in 2013 will be the all-new Buick Encore and Nissan Note.
