TrueCar becomes the first automotive prognosticator to publicly say U.S. light-vehicle sales will reach 17 million units next year.
The online car-buying and pricing service expects a healthy U.S. auto industry in 2015 to increase deliveries at least 2.6%, putting it at what some consider the magic number of 17 million.
“We see a convergence of favorable economic circumstances pushing auto demand up to pre-recession levels, including continued gains in the job market, the best consumer sentiment in eight years and low fuel prices,” says TrueCar President John Krafcik.
“This year has been remarkable in terms of growth and revenue coming from big gains in pickup, utility and luxury vehicle sales,” he says. “We think 2015 will be even better.”
Other auto-sales predictions for 2015 are close to TrueCar’s, but not quite as bullish at this point.
WardsAuto forecasts deliveries of 16.8 million, but considers 17 million do-able.
Light-vehicle sales will fall just short of 17 million units in 2015, then drop off in subsequent years, says Steve Szakaly, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Assn.
He predicts auto sales of 16.4 million this year and 16.94 million in 2015. He credits a strong U.S. economy for annual light-vehicle deliveries that have consistently climbed from the reeling recession year of 2009 when they dropped to an eye-popping 10.4 million, the lowest since 1982, according to WardsAuto.
Automakers commonly sold 17 million units and more in the recent past, hitting an all-time high of 17.4 million in 2000. From 1999 to 2006, sales topped 17 million except for 2003 when they were 16.96 million.
But detractors say those record-breaking deliveries often had more to do with volume than profits. Some automakers back then regularly lost money through seemingly reckless business practices. Those included over producing and then pushing a heavily incentivized glut of product on the market.
In contrast, today’s vehicle production is more in line with demand, leading to profitability and healthy transaction prices.
TrueCar says total market sales, including new and used vehicles, should rise 3.4% to 55.4 million units compared with 54 million in 2014. That translates into $1.2 trillion of revenue based on average transaction prices that rose 5.5% since 2013.
Other TrueCar predictions:
- New-vehicle revenue, based on transaction prices, is projected to reach $553 billion next year, a 5% increase over the $526 billion generated from an estimated 16.5 million new-vehicle sales in 2014.
- The average transaction price of new vehicles in 2015 will rise 2.4% to a record $32,589, based on TrueCar data.
- The used vehicle ATP should increase 2.1% to $16,678 next year. Used vehicle volume will grow 3.8% to 38.4 million units, up from 37 million in 2014.
- Luxury auto sales will lead growth with a 9.8% segment increase, which should rise to $116.7 billion in 2015 compared with $106.3 billion in 2014.
- Non-luxury utility vehicles are projected to rise 5% to $192.1 billion, and pickups should reach $95.7 billion, up 4.5%.
“Ford’s redesigned F-Series pickups, Mazda’s CX-3 crossover as well as the Mercedes GLA luxury crossover should be standout models in their respective segments next year,” Krafcik says.
Mass-market cars, pickups, utility vehicles and premium autos are what TrueCar calls the four “super segments.”
Those will grow next year, although cars will cede market share as more consumers move to utilities and luxury, Krafcik says.
