October U.S. light-vehicle sales should lag September by 8.2%, despite this monthâs two additional selling days (27).
Wardâs also is forecasting total light-vehicle deliveries will come in just below 950,000 units.
October historically undergoes a daily sales drop-off from September, as spiffs on prior model-year vehicles dissipate and new models populate dealer lots.
At forecast levels, daily sales would finish 17.2% ahead of last October (28 selling days), a month in which payback from the government-backed âCash-for-Clunkersâ incentive program continued to depress sales volumes.
In traditionally low-volume months such as October, the seasonally adjusted annual rate can be fickle. The October SAAR, for instance, moves a full point (100,000 units) for every 7,000 vehicles sold.
Additionally, the September-to-October change has been unusually volatile over the past decade, especially in the domestic light-truck sector, making the monthly SAAR a less-relaible indicator of overall market health.
With that in mind, Wardâs expects Octoberâs SAAR to reach a 14-month high of 12.2 million units, which also would rank also as the second-highest SAAR since September 2008.
Related document: Wardâs U.S. Lt. Vehicle Sales and Inventory Forecast
As fleet sales taper off this month, the Detroit Three auto makersâ collective share of LV sales is expected to fall to 44.7%.
October has been a down month forCo. in the past, and Wardâs looks for GM to drop about a half a percentage point of share to 17.6%, while (16.7%) and (10.6%) take up most of the slack.
Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. likely will see the biggest month-to-month share gain in October, with projected sales of 151,000 units, nearly flat with year ago DSR, making up 15.9% of the market â the companyâs highest market share since July.
AmericanMotor Co. Inc. is expected to sell more than 3,600 cars a day (14.3% above year ago), grabbing 10.3% of the U.S. market.
Group should account for 8% of LV sales, with a forecast DSR of 2,824, up 42.5% from a year-ago decimated by Clunkers payback.
Wardâs also is forecasting a 12% year-over-year gain forNorth America Inc., while the auto makerâs share is expected to fall to 7.1% for October.
Europe-based auto makers should see sales up 19% over year-ago, good for an 8.2% share of LV deliveries. The combined share of Asian and European auto makers could rise more significantly, if there is a larger-than-expected falloff in fleet sales.
At forecast volumes, year-to-date LV sales through October would total 9.55 million units, up 10.6% from like-2009.