Commentary
I’m a big fan of diesels. Or, I should say I’m a big fan of common-rail, direct-injection, turbodiesels.
They offer terrific fuel economy, performance and value. I love the way they drive. That’s why I was sure diesels would take the American car market by storm, just like they have in Europe.
But now a trio of circumstances is conspiring to choke off the diesel’s sales potential on both sides of the Atlantic. It all has to do with fuel prices, emissions regulations and alternative technologies.
In the last year, diesel-fuel prices have soared both in Europe and the U.S. Historically, diesel was significantly cheaper than gasoline, especially in European countries. Today, diesel costs about the same as petrol in Europe, and it’s significantly more expensive than gasoline in the U.S. For the vast majority of car buyers, higher pump prices for diesel is a deal killer.
Even though diesels cost more to manufacture than gasoline engines, savvy car buyers always knew that over the life of a car they could make up for that premium with the diesel’s better fuel economy. But that’s about to change.
Getting a diesel to meet the Environmental Protection Agency’s Tier 2 Bin 5 emissions standard, or the Euro 6 standard, adds a tremendous amount of cost to the engine. You should see an engineering schematic of the Bluetec emissions system that Mercedes developed. It makes the CERN Hadron Particle Accelerator look like a simple O-ring.
Customers who are used to paying about $1,500 more for a diesel will soon see that premium jump to somewhere between $3,000 and $4,000 on some models, thanks to the need for urea injection. Ouch!
At the same time, gasoline engines are being fitted with direct injection and turbochargers. While this doesn’t give them diesel-like fuel economy, they are closing the gap and at significantly lower cost. Future technologies such as HCCI (homogeneous charge compression ignition) will close the gap even more.
As a result, diesel sales in Europe this year have fallen below 50% market penetration for the first time in nearly a decade. And some expect this will turn into a long, slow decline in diesel sales.
All this is happening just as 50-state clean diesels finally are hitting the American market. Some auto makers, such as Mercedes and Volkswagen, already have a devoted following of diesel buyers.
Remember, up until the mid-1980s, something like 75% of all Mercedes sold in the U.S. were equipped with diesels. BMW and Audi soon will offer them, too.
Diesels probably will sell in the luxury segment, where car buyers are not that concerned with the price of fuel and will pay a premium to get the special high-torque performance they deliver. The same goes for heavy-duty pickups and SUVs.
But diesels in mass-market passenger cars? As far as the American market goes, I think they’re dead on arrival.
John McElroy is editorial director of Blue Sky Productions and producer of “Autoline Detroit” for WTVS-Channel 56, Detroit, and Speed Channel.
