Nearly three-quarters of new vehicles sold in California by 2020 will produce few if any emissions.
That’s the prediction of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which earlier recently released its forecast for sales of partial zero emissions vehicles (PZEV) and zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) for each year through 2020.
CARB gives figures for conventionally powered PZEV vehicles that have super-ultra low emissions vehicle emissions and 15-year, 150,000-mile (240,000 km) warranties on all emissions-related components, as well as for advanced technology (AT-PZEV) vehicles with the same emissions and warranty.
AT vehicles effectively are hybrid vehicles. ZEVs are all-electric or fuel cell powered.
For the year 2010, CARB forecasts about 628,000 PZEVs (48% of total vehicle sales in the state), 122,500 AT-PZEVs (9.41% of market) and 833 ZEVs (0.06% of market).
PZEVs are expected to grow to about 57% of the market in 2012 and remain at that level through 2020. AT-PZEVs should reach 15% penetration in 2015 and then decline slightly to 14% in 2020. ZEVs are expected to have a small, 2% market share in 2020.
Together, the three are forecast to account for 73% of California’s new car market in 2020, with the remaining 27% expected to be conventionally powered, without the long 15/150 warranty. The role diesel engines will play is not mentioned in the report.