Daily U.S. light-vehicle sales should fall about 1.3% from June to July, but with 27 selling days in July – two more than June – they likely will rise above 1 million units, according to a Ward’s forecast.
For July, Ward’s is calling for total LV deliveries of 1.04 million units on daily sales of 38,732, a 1.1% increase over like-2009. The modest year-to-year gain, compared with recent months, reflects 2009’s spike launched by the “Cash for Clunkers” program.
July’s five weekends and maximum selling days should increase showroom traffic. But static retail demand, which has been mired at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8 million over the last quarter, will combine with an expected fleet-sales decrease to account for a slight downturn in forecasted DSR.
At the forecast rates, July sales equate to an estimated 11.6 million units, slightly higher than June’s 11.1 million SAAR and year-ago’s 11.2 million.
The July forecast also tracks ahead of the current 3-month trend, which stands at 11.3 million. (Note: This month’s SAAR conversion is estimated by Ward’s. The U.S. government is not scheduled to release the official factors used to calculate SAAR until early August.).
Related document: Ward’s U.S. Lt. Vehicle Sales and Inventory Forecast
The Ward’s forecast calls forCo. to deliver more than 200,000 light vehicles on daily sales of 7,550, down 3.1% from June but up 4.6% from year-ago, for a 19.5% market share.
Motor Co. is expected to grab 16.4% of the market on deliveries topping 170,000. Group LLC’s share may drop below 9% at forecast-sales levels.
Ward’s seesMotor Sales U.S.A. Inc. selling 166,000 LVs, with a forecast DSR 8.4% below year-ago, but 9.6% above last month, bringing the auto maker’s share to 15.9%.
Americancould achieve its highest 2010 volume this month of nearly 120,000 units on daily sales of 4,351, up 2% from June, but down 1.4% from year-ago.
At forecast rates, July’s LV tally would bring year-to-date deliveries to 6,646,613, up 14.8% over like-2009.