Analysis
With inventory stuck at slightly more than 2 million units and the employment rate stagnant, there’s little reason to believe U.S. light-vehicle sales will rise markedly in September.
A WardsAuto forecast for the month calls for 993,032 car and light-truck deliveries over 25 selling days. That equals to a daily sales rate of 39,721 units and represents only a modest 3.9% gain over year-ago (also with 25 selling days).
September’s forecast DSR equates to a 3.4% decline from August results (26 days) and would mark the first month since February that auto makers sold fewer than 1 million units.
The August-to-September drop is a seasonal condition. The DSR in that period has fallen 4% or more in eight of the past nine years, reflecting diminishing inventories of current-year models and buyer hesitation to commit to a purchase just before new-model-year vehicles begin arriving on dealer lots in October.
As forecast, LV sales volume translates to a 12.3 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, a slight improvement over August’s 12.1 million and roughly in line with the current year-to-date rate.
With U.S. unemployment still at 9.1%, and consumer confidence falling precipitously in August, the SAAR likely will stay below the 13 million mark into the fourth quarter and possibly into first-quarter 2012.
However, pent-up demand continues to bolster sales in the bad economy and should keep the SAAR from slipping back below 12 million units again in 2011.
In August, month-end LV inventory climbed slightly to 2,004,533, after dipping below 2 million in July for the first time since December 2009. The current stock equates to a 49-day supply of vehicles industrywide.
Related document: Ward’s U.S. Lt. Vehicle Sales and Inventory Forecast
The WardsAuto forecast calls for General Motors to increase its DSR 17% over year-ago on volume of 203,000 light vehicles, while Ford’s DSR is expected to rise just 1% in September.
Chrysler could see deliveries jump upward of 27% compared with its poor year-ago results, as the auto maker strives to maintain or even improve on its August sales rate.
Collectively, the Detroit Three should account for more than 49% of September sales.
Neither Toyota nor Honda has registered an August-to-September gain in DSR over the past decade. But with both building back inventories from disastrously low second-quarter levels, WardsAuto looks for the two Japanese auto makers to maintain August sales levels throughout September.
The against-trend performance would give Toyota a 12.5% share of the month’s sales, and improve Honda’s penetration to 8% from 7.7% in August. However, Honda still is forecast to trail both Nissan and Hyundai/Kia for the third consecutive month.
As forecast, 2011 LV deliveries through September would total 9,428,890, a 9.7% increase over year-ago.
