Global light-vehicle production based on platforms designed in Europe will maintain leadership toward the end of decade, based on a WardAuto/AutomotiveCompass production forecast.

Architectures engineered by Japanese auto makers will hold onto second place but lose some share by 2020.

U.S.-based platforms from Ford, General Motors and Chrysler will lose a slight share. Those designed jointly by Fiat and Chrysler are counted in the European total.

Architectures from China and India will continue to carve a small niche.

The rise of Volkswagen Group in 2016, when the auto maker is forecast to overtake Toyota as the No.1 LV producer, and the global expansion by the Renault-Nissan Alliance, will extend the influence of European platforms.

By 2020, annual worldwide production of LVs based on European platforms will account for 35% of the global total, compared with 33% forecast for 2013.

Production of LVs based on Japan-based platforms will fall from 32% this year to 31% in 2020, while South Korean architectures, mostly Hyundai-designed, will slip to 9.0% from 10.4% in 2013.

U.S. platforms will drop from 20.4% this year to 19.6% in 2020.

Geographically, capacity increases in North America and Asia by BMW, Daimler and VW Group will lead to a greater share of Europe-based platform production in those markets. French auto maker PSA Peugeot Citroen, which has no presence in North America, will see a small gain in Asia.

Europe-based platforms will maintain their dominance through 2020 in South America, where they account for nearly 60% of LV production.

Ironically, the one region where European architectures will lose share is Europe, although penetration still will be a hefty 70% in 2020. South Korea- and U.S.-based platforms will improve slightly in Europe.

The second-biggest source of platform design, Japan, will lose some share in Asia and North America, the two largest regions by volume for Japanese auto makers. Japan-based architectures will make some inroads in South America and Europe, but will continue to see small volume in those regions.

Platforms designed by Chinese auto makers, most of which build LVs for the local market, will claim more share by 2020. Chinese architectures also will post small gains in South America and Europe. China’s global share is forecast to climb to 4.0% in 2020 from 3.2% this year.

Despite being a rising star as an emerging auto producer, platforms engineered by auto makers headquartered in India will represent only 1.5% share of global production by 2020, compared with 1.0% in 2013.

hstoddard@wardsauto.coms