U.S. auto makers should sell in excess of 852,000 light vehicles in November (over 24 selling days), up 9.7% on a daily basis over year-ago (23 selling days), a Ward’s forecast reveals.

The analysis factors in some payback in like-2009 results due to the end of the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” incentive program.

November daily sales historically mimic October quite closely, with both months characterized by light incentive spending and relatively low inventories on new model-year vehicles. With a forecast daily sales rate of 35,504 for the month, Ward’s is projecting a 1.3% gain on October’s DSR (over 27 days).

At forecast levels, November’s seasonally adjusted annual sales rate should fall slightly from October’s 12.2 million units, stretching to reach just 12 million units. That still would be the second-highest monthly SAAR of the year and is markedly higher than the year-to-date SAAR through October of 11.3 million units.

Related document: Ward’s U.S. Lt. Vehicle Sales and Inventory Forecast

Fleets played a slightly reduced role in October sales for U.S.-based auto makers, but the Detroit Three likely will lean heavily on commercial-fleet deliveries this month.

General Motors Co., basking in the glow of a generally positive reception to its initial public offering of stock this week, should see daily sales rise 6.4% over year-ago, on a volume of 167,000 units, giving the company a 19.6% share of the market.

Ford Motor Co. should keep daily sales up 11% over year-ago, with strong commercial-fleet transactions, to achieve a forecast 15.8% share of the market on a volume of about 135,000 units.

Chrysler Group LLC is expected to increase its DSR 24.7% over year-ago, for a 9.6% take of LV sales.

Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. daily sales likely will be flat with October and down 5.9% from year-ago. An anticipated increase in market share failed to materialize in October, and Ward’s is forecasting a 15.4% penetration for Toyota in November, even with the prior month.

American Honda Motor Co. Inc. is expected to increase its DSR 11.3% over year-ago, for a 10.1% share.

Hyundai Group, which was suffering the largest post-Clunker deficit a year-ago, will likely see its DSR jump more than 40% as volume exceeds 67,000 vehicles for a 7.9% share.

Ward’s also is forecasting an 8.8% year-over-year gain for Nissan North America Inc., leaving the auto maker with roughly 7.5% of overall LV sales for the month.

At forecast volumes, year-to-date LV sales through October would total 10.4 million units, up 10.9% from like-2009 and on track for a year-end total of nearly 11.5 million units.

jsousanis@wardsauto.com