By Justin Hyde
DETROIT, Sept 26 (Reuters) - High incentives and new models likely kept U.S. consumers buying cars and trucks at a healthy pace in September, but sales were expected to be down sharply from the near-record rate in August.
U.S. auto sales, to be released by automakers on Wednesday, are seen hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 16.6 million in September, according to a Reuters survey of five industry analysts.
That's well below the 19 million annual rate hit in August, when Detroit's Big Three and several foreign competitors pushed to clear 2003 models from dealers' lots.
But it's better than the 16.2 million rate from September 2002, which followed a similar August boom. While some analysts see it as a sign of strength among consumers, others note that most of the deals used to boost sales in August were still available this month.
"Detroit...is paying lip service to the necessity of lowering incentives, but its continued loss of market share to the foreign brands is likely to make any sustained decline in incentives relatively small," Burnham Securities analyst David Healy said in a research note.
The decline in September auto sales compared with August also comes against the backdrop of an unexpected dip in U.S. consumer sentiment in September. Persistent weakness in the job market, high gasoline prices and fallout from the occupation in Iraq took a toll, according to a University of Michigan survey released on Friday.
Among Detroit's Big Three, only General Motors Corp. is expected to have a good month. Analysts predict GM sales could rise by as much as 10 percent, thanks to a comparison with weak results in September 2002.
GM kept the throttle open on its incentives in September. The world's largest automaker averaged $4,370 per vehicle in rebates, no-interest loans and other deals in August, and it enhanced its deals this month with an extra $1,000 off for thousands of its own employees, as well as employees of suppliers and dealers.
TRUCKIN'
Estimates for Ford Motor Co.'s sales range from flat to down 10 percent, as the automaker faces a tough comparison with last year. Its new F-150 pickup has been selling well, analysts said, but the rest of Ford's lineup has been lagging. And the company is in the midst of launching new minivan models.
While Ford hasn't offered quite as much in incentives as GM, it did reach new ground in Detroit's price war this month by offering six-year, no-interest loans on five models, including its Explorer sport utility vehicle.
After being outsold by Toyota Motor Corp. in August, DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler arm may not find much relief in September. Analysts expect Chrysler to suffer the worst sales decline of the Big Three, with results down as much as 15 percent.
While Japan's Big Three of Toyota, Honda Motor Co. Ltd. and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. aren't expected to hit their record market share of August, analysts do forecast a slight gain in sales for all three.
Toyota is still ramping up its Sienna minivan, the Solara coupe and its Scion line in California. Nissan has its Quest minivan in production, and its Pathfinder Armada large SUV and Titan large pickup yet to launch this year.