TOKYO, June 28 (Reuters) - Japan released a slew of economic data on Friday suggesting the economy's recovery in the first quarter of 2002 may be hard to sustain. Following is a summary:
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Industrial output climbed for a fourth straight month, rising 3.9 percent from April. It was the biggest increase since the data series began in 1993. The median of a Reuters poll showed economists had expected a rise of 2.9 percent. "Production is still the main driving force for the recovery (in Japan's economy)," said Deutsche Securities senior economist Mikihiro Matsuoka. "It is consistent with data on exports which show quite a sharp rise in month-on-month volumes, especially to Asia."
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Japan's nationwide core consumer price index fell 0.8 percent in May from a year earlier, dropping for a 32nd straight month. The core index, which excludes volatile prices of fresh food, was up 0.1 percent from April, the third successive month-on-month rise. "Although CPI was slightly better than our expectations, I don't think it will return to positive territory for a long time. The yen's recent rise should push down import prices and put further downward pressure on CPI," said Shinichi Sato, manager of market research at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities.
TOKYO CPI
Prices data for the Tokyo area, which come out a month before the nationwide figures, showed core CPI sliding 1.0 percent in June from a year earlier, the 33rd consecutive month of decline. On a month-on-month basis, core Tokyo CPI fell 0.1 percent.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Japan's jobless rate rose for the first time in five months in May, to 5.4 percent, close to December's record high of 5.5 percent. It was 5.2 percent in April. A Reuters survey of 18 economists showed a median forecast of 5.2 percent for May. "The decline in employment was greater than expected. Particularly, there were large falls in manufacturing and construction," said Peter Morgan, senior economist at HSBC Securities Japan. "Those are obviously the areas where there are substantial excesses, so it is good they are being squeezed out, but short-term it has a negative impact on consumption."
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
Average spending by households of wage earners, a key gauge of personal consumption, fell a real 0.4 percent in May from a year earlier. Wage-earners' monthly spending per household in May was down a real 2.5 percent from April on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The manufacturing industry cut the number of jobs. They are restructuring. That's good for profitability but not good for consumption. Household spending data reflects this too," said Tomoko Fujii, senior economist at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney.
VEHICLE EXPORTS
Japan's vehicle exports rose 25.6 percent in May from a year earlier to 360,246 vehicles, marking a fifth straight month of year-on-year gains.
CONSTRUCTION ORDERS
Orders received by 50 major Japanese construction companies were flat in May from a year earlier at 764.8 billion yen ($6.40 billion). They had fallen for eight straight months up to April.
HOUSING STARTS
Japan's housing starts rose 5.8 percent in May from a year earlier to 106,110 units, up for the first time in three months. This was the highest number since December 2000. The market consensus was for a fall of about four percent.