TRAVERSE CITY, MI – With the midterm review of fuel-economy rules coming up next year and oil prices plummeting, the news media have been filled with dire-sounding reports about how the slowing popularity of fuel-efficient vehicles and soaring CUV and pickup sales could derail automakers’ ability to meet 2025 CAFE standards.
The standards are aimed at doubling fleet fuel economy and chopping automotive greenhouse gas emissions 50% within the next decade.
Christopher Grundler, director-Office of Transportation and Air Quality at the U.S. EPA, takes issue with these stories, saying automakers are outperforming his agency’s mileage expectations and 10% of light vehicles sold in the U.S. meet the 2025 standard now, 10 years early.
Instead of mentioning the Toyota Prius as one of these vehicles, Grundler surprises most in the Management Briefing Seminars audience by saying the most-efficient version of the current Ford F-150 fullsize pickup, equipped with a 2.7L EcoBoost V-6 and 2-wheel drive, meets the rules through 2024 without any modifications. It gets 19/26 mpg (12.3-9.0 L/100 km) city/highway and 22 mpg (10.7 L/100 km) combined.
That sounds like a long way from the 54.5 mpg (4.3 L/100 km) 2025 bogey, but he points out the requirements are based on reasonable percentage improvements for specific vehicle footprints that recognize the different roles vehicles play in the marketplace. He also mentions 54.5 mpg is a non-adjusted number that does not include special credits or real-world allowances.
“These are laboratory compliance values,” he says. “54.5 mpg translates into about 40 mpg (5.9 L/100 km).” Media stories are perpetuating numerous myths about the CAFE rules that are not true, he insists.
Automakers can meet 2025 rules simply by using advanced gasoline-engine technologies, he says, and articles that suggest otherwise are incorrect.
A recent WardsAuto survey of the automotive design and engineering community supports Grundler’s premise that current 2025 goals are achievable in their current form, despite low gas prices. In fact, almost 90% of respondents say the CAFE rules will be made more stringent rather than relaxed during the midterm review. The results of that survey will be published tomorrow, Aug. 5.
For instance, Grundler says it is a myth CAFE regulations ignore consumer choice and are intended to force everyone into small cars. He also says it is a myth low percentages of electric vehicle sales will make it impossible to meet CAFE standards.
Regulators did not even include the introduction of fuel-saving 9- and 10-speed transmissions (expected to become popular in coming years) into the 2025 calculations, he says, much less high percentages of EVs.
“We are looking at economic issues, employment and what new technologies are available,” he says emphatically. “We’re paying close attention to the marketplace, fleet-mix changes and technology penetration.”
Grundler says the EPA even studies car reviews and notes CVT transmissions and stop/start systems are not well-liked by the automotive media because of drivability and NVH issues.
“I know there is a perception out there that this (the decision to keep 2025 rules the same) has already been cooked,” he says, but he insists the midterm process will be thorough and fair.
The midterm evaluation officially starts in June 2016, and a final determination will be made in April 2018, Grundler says.
