By Vithoon Amorn
BANGKOK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Sales of one-tonne pick-up trucks in Thailand, seen as a guide to economic activity, maintained robust growth in July, according to a Reuters index that supports official data pointing to a solid economy.
The Reuters Thai Pick-up Index shows sales trending higher by at least two percent a month since April, although July growth was lower than each of the previous three months'.
The index, which is subject to revision, stood about 23 percent higher in July than a year earlier.
Thais bought 26,894 pick-ups in July, according to raw figures supplied by Toyota Motor Thailand Co Ltd.
But that figure cannot be interpreted by comparing it with the 25,574 pick-ups bought in June, because Thais tend to buy more trucks in some months than in others. Even a comparison with the 19,537 pick-ups sold in July 2002 has limited usefulness, because the data is extremely volatile and because the change over the past year reveals little about current trends.
So the Reuters Thai Pick-up Index is adjusted to minimise distortions due to seasonal patterns, permitting comparisons between recent months, and is smoothed to suppress volatility.
The result, a rise of 2.2 percent in July following 2.9 percent in each of May and June, backs up bullish official views of the economy.
The Bank of Thailand last month raised its projection for 2003 gross domestic product growth, which it now sees 4.5 to 5.5 percent higher than last year's, compared with the 3.5 to 4.5 percent growth previously forecast.
Thai consumer confidence surged to a record high in July, fuelled by an improving economy, robust exports, low interest rates and the early repayment of IMF arranged loans, according to a university survey released on Thursday.
The index stood at about 165 in July, with a level of 100 equaling an average month between 1996 and 2002.
An accompanying report [nBKK222246] tabulates the raw sales figures that the Reuters Thai Pick-up Index is based on. It also explains how the index is calculated.
Economists say they get a good insight into the strength of the Thai economy from sales of pick-ups -- small trucks designed for loads of about one tonne and widely used by businesses across the country to carry materials, tools, workers and products.
Pick-up sales turned out to be a leading indicator of Thailand's 1997 severe economic slowdown.
Raw sales figures peaked in December 1996 -- reflecting the tendency for December sales to be very strong -- but the Reuters Thai Pick-up Index shows a peak a few months earlier, at 185 points.
The subsequent collapse was dramatic, with the index reaching a trough of 36 in mid 1998.
Strong trend rises followed, until late 1999, after which the growth became more moderate for about two years.
Trend growth has picked up again since then, although the index shows a recent flat spot between October and March.
Nearly two out of every three vehicles sold in Thailand in recent years are light trucks, which have become a very common sight in rural Thailand.