(Adds analyst comment in paragraph 5-8, 10-14)
BEIJING, Aug 20 (Reuters) - China's largest minibus maker, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings , launched its much-anticipated first passenger car on Tuesday, saying it hoped to sell up to 30,000 of them next year.
The Zhonghua -- Chinese for China -- has a price tag of 169,800 yuan ($20,515) for the basic model. It has a 2.0-litre engine and a top speed of more than 190 kph (120 mph), the company said.
"Today marks the beginning of our share in the sedan sector," chief executive Su Qiang told a news conference.
Su told Reuters later he expected to sell 8,000 Zhonghua cars this year and 25,000 to 30,000 next year. But he declined to say how profitable he expected the sales to be.
However, analysts were sceptical about his sales forecast.
"That's too optimistic," said Lin Wenjun, analyst with the Capital International Holdings.
Without a well-known foreign partner involved, the company had little technical support or management expertise, Lin said.
She estimated sales this year at only 5,000, 37 percent less than the company forecast.
The Zhonghua is Brilliance's first self-developed car. It is made at a joint venture in northeast China between Brilliance China and Shenyang Brilliance Automotive Co Ltd , a separate company which has said it will change its name to Shenyang Jinbei Automotive Co Ltd.
Brilliance signed a deal last month with Germany's BMW AG to make BMW's luxury sedans in China. BMW has not been involved in the Zhonghua.
Other analysts said the sedan faces other problems.
"The company doesn't have a reliable supplier of spare parts or technical support, which could undermine its after-sales service. It depends solely on the distribution system of Shenyang Brilliance, which is not well-developed." said Xu Xiang, an analyst with China Southern Securities.
He said the car was not competitive compared with its main rivals, including Mazda's Familia sedan launched last month and Volkswagen's Bora, launched last year.
"How well the car is going to sell next year depends on two things. One, whether its price will go down. Two, whether the company will launch new models that meet the market's demand." Xu said.
Brilliance executives played down the prospect of intense competition.
"We are not going to compete with anyone. We only to want to obtain the market share we deserve." chief executive Su Qiang told Reuters. He did not say how much the share would be.
Brilliance planned to launch a luxury version of the Zhonghua later this year and one equipped with a 2.4-litre engine next year, the company said.
Competition in China's automobile market has heated up since the country joined the World Trade Organization last year. Tariffs on car imports have been cut, sparking price wars.
($1=8.277yuan)