(Adds spokesman, details, background, share price)
By Michael Steen
FRANKFURT, Oct 18 (Reuters) - DaimlerChrysler AG , the world's fifth-biggest carmaker, is expected to have met its full-year 2002 profit goal three months ahead of target, according to a Reuters poll of analysts published on Friday.
The company posts third-quarter earnings next Wednesday and if the forecasts are confirmed, the result would underline its progress in restructuring the U.S. Chrysler arm, which brings in 40 percent of revenue but posted a loss last year.
It would also reflect cautious forecasting for 2002 since the German-U.S. manufacturer issued a profit warning in February.
The average expectation of 23 analysts surveyed by Reuters was for adjusted operating profit in the first nine months of the year to reach 4.24 billion euros ($4.13 billion), up from 781 million euros in the same period a year earlier.
Their forecasts ranged from 3.95 billion to 4.67 billion.
DaimlerChrysler said in July it expected full-year operating profit of 4.05 billion euros. That was itself a revision of a more pessimistic forecast given in February when it slashed an earlier target of making 5.5 to 6.5 billion euros in 2002. The company's shares recovered slightly on news of the poll and were trading 1.43 percent lower at 37.26 euros by 1325 GMT, while the DJ Stoxx European autos index was one percent lower.
A DaimlerChrysler spokesman declined to comment on the quarterly results ahead of publication.
Restructuring at Chrysler is ahead of schedule and the unit now brings in a modest profit rather than a loss, while the luxury German Mercedes-Benz division remains highly profitable.
Chief Financial Officer Manfred Gentz told Reuters this week that full-year revenue would be better than a previous forecast of 143 billion euros.
"We have the issues we can deal with ourselves fairly well in hand," he said.
ECONOMIC RISKS
But things that DaimlerChrysler does not control -- the world economy and global stock market weakness to name but two -- have ensured the company remains careful in its statements.
"If you could get rid of this uncertainty, then I think we could do well next year and in the following years and that there would then be realistic expectations of returning to our former earnings strength," Gentz said.
Sell-side analysts say the company is looking better.
"With Chrysler in profit in Q2 and now also in Q3 2002, we believe investor perceptions of the company will start to change, at least towards a GM valuation," CSFB analysts said in a research note. They rate Daimler "outperform". And were it not for falling stock prices, the DaimlerChrysler valuation might tempt some investors. According to Reuters data, its current share price values the company about three percent below the book value of its assets. Its share price has dropped 22 percent this year, underperforming the European automobile sector by five percent.
The Reuters poll also forecast that third-quarter adjusted operating profit would nearly double from its low base a year ago to 1.27 billion euros, on revenue of 36.7 billion euros, up from 36.0 billion a year ago.
(Additional reporting by Peggy Kropmanns)