(Wraps separate newsbreaks, adds analysts, real economy)
By Marta Karpinska
WARSAW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Poland's industrial output surged in December as manufacturing exports profited from the weak zloty, Central Statistics Office figures showed on Tuesday.
December output, not adjusted for seasonal factors, jumped 13.9 percent year-on-year, benefiting from an extra working day. That was just above the 13.7 percent median expected in a Reuters poll.
Adjusted for seasonal factors, annual output growth was 11.6 percent -- unchanged from November.
Jacek Wisniewski, economist at Bank Pekao, estimated the robust output figures would push economic growth up to 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003 from 3.9 percent in the third, lifting full-year growth to 3.6 percent.
"Export-bound production is still the strongest," he added.
Manufacturing output soared 18.7 percent year-on-year in December, driven by cars and machinery, rubber goods, plastic and furniture.
Confirming the strong trend, autoparts maker Groclin announced export deals worth double its estimated 2003 sales -- powering its shares up to 10 percent higher on Tuesday to a new record.
Factory gate price inflation was surprisingly stable at an annual 3.7 percent -- below the 3.8 percent median in Reuters' poll -- after a 0.1 percent month-on-month growth in December.
"What is key that we did not see an acceleration in PPI inflation which signals inflation has not really increased since November," said Zsolt Papp economist at ABN Amro in London.
"This data certainly does not support a change in interest rates, certainly not an increase. On balance it might support the case for those who favour an interest rate cut, but I would not expect another cut until March," he added.
Most analysts now expect the new Monetary Policy Council to cut the main market rate, now 5.25 percent, by 25 basis points in March. The zloty and local bonds shrugged off the data.