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By Vithoon Amorn
BANGKOK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The Thai central bank issued a set of consistently strong August economic data on Monday, reinforcing confidence that the country is recovering powerfully from its 2001 slowdown.
The data showed sharp improvements in Thai industrial output, domestic consumption and business investment while exports hit their highest total in dollar terms in almost two years.
"The economic recovery is on track," Bank of Thailand's chief economist Atchana Waiquamdee told a news conference.
"Economic uncertainty and volatility in financial and stock markets did not impact on the economy in August," she added.
Thailand's August exports, at $6.09 billion, were 8.1 percent higher than a year earlier. It was the highest monthly total since November 2000 and exceeded July's $5.54 billion.
The Thai economy grew 5.1 percent between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, compared with the sluggish 1.8 percent growth seen a year before.
On Monday the central bank reported that the manufacturing production index (MPI) in August was up strongly on a year earlier, as it had been in each of the five preceding months.
The index rose a faster-than-expected 11.4 percent during the 12 months to August, which was the fastest rise seen since December 1999. It exceeded the eight percent rise expected by analysts and the 9.6 percent reported for the year to July.
STRONG RECOVERY
The central bank attributed the growth in output to a strong recovery of domestic demand and robust exports. It said sectors with sharply higher output included electronics, cars and steel.
"This points to a firm Q3 GDP figure...and the economy looks set to be on track towards (the finance ministry) annual growth forecast of 4-4.25 percent," research firm 4castweb said.
Thailand's trade account bounced back into surplus in August thanks to a strong rise in exports.
The central bank said imports rose by 19.4 percent on a year earlier to $5.83 billion. The bracing performance in exports pushed the trade account to a surplus of $238 million, after a $185 million deficit in July.
Major Thai factories were operating at 61.2 percent of their capacity in August, up strongly from 58.1 in July, while the central bank's private investment index was 37.5 percent stronger than a year earlier at 55.4.
The bank said domestic sales of commercial vehicles jumped 66.9 percent during the 12 months to August while imports of capital goods surged 25.7 percent, compared with a 26.7 percent decline in year to August 2001.
But the central bank said its monthly survey of business sentiment showed that Thai companies were worried about higher production costs that normally followed rising oil prices.
Analysts welcomed the August data, saying the export growth boded well for overall economic growth this year.
But they cautioned that Thai exports depended heavily on a couple of key sectors, both of which could be vulnerable if there was another economic downturn in the United States.
"Right now Thailand's depending quite heavily on electronics and products like electrical appliances. This could be affected by world demand," said Thanomsri Fongarunrung, economist at Merrill Lynch Phatra Securities.
"Economic growth in the third quarter will be OK because of momentum from domestic demand and exports are still good. The fourth quarter and early next year is much more uncertain because of low confidence in the global economy and the prospect of higher oil prices if there's a war," she added.