WRAPUP 1-U.S. industrials express cautious H2 optimism


* Tyco, Timken, Kennametal beat, shares rise

* Rockwell CEO: little visibility into demand

* Siemens says global risks are increasing

By Nick Zieminski and Scott Malone

NEW YORK/BOSTON, July 28 (Reuters) - Several U.S. industrials delivered better-than-expected quarterly profits on Thursday and raised their forecasts for the second half, balancing some of the pessimism that dragged down industrial shares in the prior session.

A brighter mood prevailed as Tyco International Ltd , Timken Co and Kennametal Inc , among others, beat Wall Street estimates. Most U.S. manufacturing stocks rose, recovering part of Wednesday's losses that had been sparked by worries about the U.S. debt impasse and by a blunt warning on U.S. and European economies by conglomerate Emerson Electric Co .

Tyco's quarterly profit beat forecasts amid sharply higher earnings in its security business. The company, which also makes industrial valves and fire and safety products, reported earnings from continuing operations before special items of 85 cents a share, beating estimates by 12 cents. Tyco raised its full-year forecast by roughly the same amount. [ID:nN1E76Q15B]

Shares rose 1.9 percent.

"Tyco is just beginning to see a pick-up in growth," said Bryan Keane, co-portfolio manager of the Alpine Accelerating Dividend Fund, which owns shares of Tyco, as well as 3M Co, United Technologies Corp and Dover Corp .

"There is concern about the macro outlook, but at this point we believe we're in a gradual recovery, both U.S. and globally," Keane said, adding that the earnings season now winding down has been marked by "cautious optimism."

The impasse over raising the U.S. debt ceiling before next week's potential default is an "overhang" that will soon be resolved, he said, but it does create uncertainty about the next few months.

"Companies are expecting growth in the back half, but they do have that tinge of caution because of the debt deal in the next couple of weeks, what happens in Europe (and) whether China is slowing down," Keane said.


Rockwell Automation Inc's profit rose 50 percent, topping expectations, helped by a lower than expected tax rate, and the company raised its 2011 earnings forecast. [ID:nN1E76Q1JB]

Rockwell Chief Executive Keith Nosbusch acknowledged that much of the company's industrial equipment is sold shortly after it is ordered, so Rockwell does not have long order backlogs supporting its forecasts.

"In 70 percent of our business we have very little visibility, so this could change in a week, quite frankly," Nosbusch said in an interview. "If there is a change, it could be quick." Rockwell shares fell 2.4 percent.

Rockwell's CEO sounded more positive on the economy than rival Emerson Electric, which warned a day earlier that U.S. and European economies had entered a soft patch in the past two months. [ID:nN1E76Q132]

Emerson shares fell a further 0.7 percent as analysts cut earnings and sales forecasts. Emerson reports next Tuesday.

A similar reminder that not all is well came from Siemens AG , the huge German conglomerate that competes with U.S. multinationals in a wide range of businesses. Siemens cautioned that global risks are increasing.

"I think we are seeing a leveling off of growth momentum in the United States and Europe," Chief Executive Peter Loescher told Reuters Insider TV. [ID:nLDE76R03Y]


Industrial tool maker Kennametal Inc posted market-beating results, helped by engineering and transportation markets, and issued a forecast of fiscal 2012 earnings with a midpoint topping Wall Street estimates.

Along with Parker Hannifin Corp , which reports next week, Kennametal is one of the first companies to offer a glimpse into next year, since its 2012 fiscal year, now under way, extends to next June. Kennametal expects fiscal 2012 earnings of $3.50 a share to $3.80 a share, versus analysts' average estimate of $3.54. [ID:nL3E7IS467] Its shares were slightly higher.

Bearings maker Timken Co , which competes with Sweden's SKF AB , Germany's Schaeffler and Japan's NSK Ltd , reported higher demand from oil and gas and industrial markets. [ID:nL3E7IS3ZH] Timken rose 2.0 percent.

Brunswick Corp shares rose 8.7 percent. The maker of recreational boats and bowling and billiards equipment said boat sales bottomed last year. Profit tripled.[ID:nN1E76Q1QM]

Oshkosh Corp , however, forecast lower sales next year, reflecting lower defense and municipal spending on its specialty trucks. Its stock fell 14.4 percent. [ID:nN1E76R025]

The vast majority of large U.S. companies were beating estimates this quarter because estimates had come down sharply after the March earthquake in Japan and a rally in oil prices, said Kent Croft, co-manager of the Croft Value Fund that owns Tyco stock and has added to its 3M and Honeywell International Inc holdings.

"Things have definitely slowed down, but I also think that's not a surprise to anybody anymore," said Croft, who called himself an optimist and predicted that current obsessions like the debt crisis will soon be in the rear-view mirror.

"There are cheap things all around," he said. (Additional reporting by Megha Mandavia and A. Ananthalakshmi, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)



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