The Future of Autonomous Technology

Supplier Continental predicts global government rules for autonomous tech will create a $11.4 billion (€10 billion) global market for advanced driver-assist systems by 2020. Serious revenue growth for suppliers starts this year and ramps up quickly. (See related story: Volkswagen Golf and Passat models in Europe has resulted in a 45% drop in third-party personal injury insurance claims in the U.K., according to an independent study.

The Motor Insurance Repair Research Center in Thatcham, Berkshire (Thatcham Research), operated by the U.K. insurance industry, says the finding is based on the equivalent of more than 7,000 Mark VII (seventh-generation) Golf models insured for a full 12 months on the road, and comes from claims data from its insurance members.

“When we saw figures based on an initial small sample, we were surprised, as they exceeded our own performance testing,” Thatcham Research Director of Safety Matthew Avery says in a statement.

“However the figures held up, even after almost doubling the sample group, and have therefore given us a glimpse of what safety on U.K. roads could look like in the future.”

On Verge of Hockey-Stick Growth

Unlike Google’s expensive laser-based radar, these automotive systems use relatively inexpensive cameras and radio-wave based radar to work in concert with mechanical systems such as ESC and electric power steering to provide guidance and control. Radar is good at object detection and seeing through glare, rain, fog and darkness, while cameras are best at object classification: identifying traffic signs, lane markers, pedestrians and vehicles, Mehr says. Combining front- and rear-facing radars and cameras can provide relatively low-cost 360-degree sensing, he says.   

They are part of a technical journey that started 15 years ago with the first radar-based smart cruise control systems, Mehr says, and as volumes begin to soar they will become much more affordable.

Progress has been slow because it has taken years to achieve the production volumes and scale to make these technologies affordable on mainstream vehicles and not just top-end luxury models such as the Mercedes S-Class.

However, Vision Zero mandates will create the proverbial hockey-stick growth chart for ADAS systems beginning this year, resulting in an €10 billion ($11.4 billion) market by 2020, Mehr says. This includes driver-assist features, warning systems and various cameras, radars and sensors.

Sales of components such as forward-looking cameras are expected to soar from about 4 million units last year to about 15 million units in 2019 and installation rates are predicted to jump from less than 10% to more than 20% globally in 2019.

More than 20 suppliers from various tiers will be competing for ADAS business but “This is a completely new market that doesn’t substitute or cannibalize other markets,” Mehr says.

Considering current development strategies, Google or another nontraditional automaker likely will be first to offer a completely autonomous vehicle for sale. But with costs so high and volume production so far away for such cars, it seems safe to predict the slow-and-steady ADAS tortoises will be first to make the real money in the autonomous-vehicle market.

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