New Electric Car Industry Imminent

For Years, California Regulators have been Dreaming of the kind of headlines that came out of the Paris auto show.

Among them: “Paris Offers Drivers Electric Cars to Beat Pollution” and “Electric Cars Shine at Paris Auto Show.”

More than 30 electric cars were displayed at the show, from six established auto makers as well as 16 new entrants to the transportation market.

These were extended-range electric vehicles, not hybrid-electric vehicles or any other type of half measure. As surprising as it may sound, the arrival of a real EV industry appears imminent in France.

California tried to mandate sales of EVs more than a decade ago. Even though that idealistic effort ultimately failed, the mandate did lead to the development of numerous electric cars. The most famous is General Motors Corp.'s EV1, which since has spawned the Chevrolet Volt.

But France and its auto makers may well wrest EV leadership from North America.

The steady improvement of lithium-ion battery technology is the engine behind this nascent EV industry.

But older (and cheaper) battery technologies, such as nickel-metal hydride and lead-acid still may have their day, too.

It also must be pointed out that many of the electric cars shown in Paris in October were quadricycles, a category of low-powered cars that can be driven without a regular license in France. Others were strictly concepts.

Even so, serious people and serious money were visible everywhere.

During the show, Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoe announced details of Autolib, an EV-sharing program that will provide 2,000 electric cars in Paris to people who want to drive from one place to another in the city.

Paris will take bids next year and start the program in the fourth quarter of 2010. Many EVs at the show were designed for this kind of program.

The EDF, France's national electricity company that makes 80% of its electricity with nuclear power, announced partnerships with both Renault SA and PSA Peugeot-Citroen to study construction of an EV infrastructure and standards.

Tire supplier Michelin SA revealed its Michelin Active Wheel: a wheel with two electric motors inside: a 30kW (40 hp) traction motor and a second to handle active suspension duties.

Monaco-based carmaker Venturi Automobiles SA unveiled its Volage sports-car concept, featuring four Active Wheels, which it says will go into production in 2013.

French-Indian Heuliez SA showed off its Will, with front wheels powered by Michelin's Active Wheels. Heuliez is targeting 2010 for Will production. Heuliez, has a new Indian investor and an EV history as the company that converted 10,000 Peugeots and Citroens to lead-acid battery power.

Heuliez also developed the small Friendly urban EV and a concept pickup truck called the Pondicherry developed with Heuliez's Indian partner Argentum Motors.

Renault, already committed to introducing electric cars in Israel, Portugal and Denmark in 2011, is expanding its plan to include France during the same time frame.

PSA, which has been putting most of its eggs in the diesel-HEV basket, has announced a re-launch of its research and development into EVs and says it now will develop plug-in HEVs in parallel with diesel HEVs.

Future volumes can't be predicted, says French auto analyst Jean-Michel Prillieux of Mavel SA.

“The range of electric cars and performance are progressing, and cars will be introduced in 2010 and 2011,” he says. But because there is no history to start from, predictions are little more than guesses at this point.

Renault and its Alliance partner Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. are aiming for 20,000 to 40,000 units a year when their projects get off the ground, and 50,000 to 100,000 units by 2015. London-based Frost & Sullivan says more than 250,000 electric cars will be running in Europe by that time.

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn, a frequent critic of HEVs, now is the most vocal proponent of pure EVs.

Renault will start its EV push in 2011 by using the Megane platform to make a 4-door electric car that likely will be named the Fluence. Also in 2011, Renault is expected to produce an electric version of the Kangoo, foreshadowed by the V.E. Concept the auto maker exhibited in Paris.

In 2012, Renault plans to introduce a purpose-built EV.

“The question is not whether demand will be sufficient,” says Ghosn. “It is whether supply will be able to follow the demand that is already out there.”

But Japanese auto maker Mitsubishi Motors Corp. will be first to market with a volume EV, its 4-seat i-MiEV. Mitsubishi plans to sell the car in 2009 in Japan and 2010 in other markets.

Daimler AG added to the electricity in the air in Paris, showing off the Smart ED, an electric version of its tiny Fortwo. The ED is expected to go into production in 2010.

Meanwhile, Nissan plans to introduce EVs, probably converted Nissan Cubes, in Japan and the U.S. in 2010.

Nissan won't reveal many details about the electric powertrain of the NuVu Concept it unveiled in Paris except to say the Li-ion batteries would provide a range of 78 miles (125 km).

Venturi Automobiles SA, a new entrant from Monaco, won a deal with the French post office by packaging a nickel-sodium-chloride battery and electric motor under the hood of a Citroen Berlingo Classic.

Most of the ready-to-purchase quadricycles shown at the Paris show use lead-acid batteries. Even so, they are not inexpensive. The entry-level, 2-seat e2 from Matra-GEM with a 31-mile (50-km) range and 5-hp motor costs almost E10,000 ($13,000). For that, you can buy a full-size gasoline-powered Logan Dacia.

But price isn't everything. Countries such as Israel are anxious to reduce imports of petroleum. Mayors are anxious to reduce noise and pollution in their ancient city centers. Europe believes strongly in the need to reduce CO2 emissions.

France offers car buyers a E5,000 ($6,500) incentive for a zero-emission car. The French region of Poitou Charentes, whose president Segolene Royal lost the 2007 French presidential election to Nicolas Sarkozy, is financially supporting three companies trying to get into the EV business, including Heuleiz, one of the stronger new entrants.

There also are French hopefuls, coming at the industry from a whole different perspective.

Thierry Moulene and his father have developed the E25,000 ($32,000) Lumeneo Smera, a 4-wheel car only 31 ins. (800mm) wide, with the passenger seat behind the driver. Moulene imagines the car weaving in and out of French traffic like motorcycles do today. Production is announced for 2009.

For Venturi, the potential of selling 10,000 units to the French post office has resulted in a partnership with PSA. Besides its sports cars, Venturi has developed a small 2-seat Eclectic that it will propose for urban transportation schemes.

“In Europe, the relationship between people and cars is changing,” says CEO Gildo Pastor. “Young people today want a computer, a telephone. The car is not at the center of their thoughts. In the city you can't park, and it costs a fortune to insure it. Our vision is a car for delivery, a small car for AutoLib. An electric sports car won't save the planet.”

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