Smaller Players Take Early EV Lead

As global interest in electric vehicles accelerates, two small Japanese auto makers have edged past the competition and stolen the early limelight.

In July, Mitsubishi Motors Corp. launched the i-MiEV and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. rolled out the Stella in Japan. What these two EV pathfinders plan as encores is revealed in exclusive Ward's interviews with a senior executive at each company.

“Our alliance with Peugeot (Citroen SA) will help boost sales, and we're taking a 2-step approach,” says Tohru Hashimoto, a research specialist in Mitsubishi's Product Strategy Office.

“First (is) to focus on Europe and, eventually, the U.S.,” he says. “Second (is) to build two additional models by 2013, including a commercial version of the i-MiEV, due out in 2011, and a slightly larger vehicle to be built on an all-new A-platform currently under development.”

The A-platform vehicle could be ready in 2012 or 2013 “at the latest,” Hashimoto adds.

Mitsubishi showcased the i-MiEV Cargo at the Tokyo Motor Show in October, but the auto maker's new “Global Small” platform has yet to be exhibited anywhere.

For larger vehicles, Mitsubishi is developing a plug-in hybrid system.

It unveiled a plug-in hybrid SUV concept called the Concept-PX MiEV at the Tokyo show. Powered by a 1.6L gasoline engine, 60-kW (80-hp) front and rear motors and a lithium-ion battery, the car features three driving modes: EV, series hybrid and parallel hybrid.

The concept SUV gets more than 120 mpg (2.0 L/100 km) in Japan's 10-15 mph (16-24 km/h) city driving mode and, according to Hashimoto, is being considered for a 2013 or 2014 launch. In the future, he hopes pure EVs will move up in size to the 2.0L car class, but no timeframe is offered.

The i-MiEV is built on Mitsubishi's MR platform, which also underpins the more conventional 0.66L i minicar. Hashimoto considers the platform uniquely suited to battery-powered operation because of its light weight and relatively long wheelbase.

The i wheelbase is 2.0 ins. (5.0 cm) longer than the 1.3L Colt, making it possible to store the 330V battery pack under the floor.

Hashimoto says sales of 1,700 i-MiEVs are confirmed for fiscal 2009, which ends March 31, including 1,400 in Japan and 250 “samples” in Europe.

Production will more than triple to 6,000 units in fiscal 2010, when the i-MiEV goes on sale in Europe, and jump to 15,000 units globally in fiscal 2011.

“As early as possible, hopefully before fiscal 2015, we would like to increase annual production to 30,000 units,” Hashimoto says.

By 2020, the auto maker projects EVs, plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids will account for 20% of Mitsubishi's annual sales and cut carbon-dioxide emissions an average 50% from the vehicles in its lineup.

The auto maker's 2020 global production target is 1.5 million units, including an estimated 300,000 EVs and hybrids.

Is the target reachable? Not likely, according to Tokyo analysts, who cite prohibitively expensive battery costs and still undeveloped infrastructure.

Hashimoto readily admits the main damper on EV sales is the high cost of batteries, but believes that will be partially offset by savings at the pump as oil prices inevitably climb back to $100 per barrel.

“We expect $100-per-barrel prices in two years' time,” he says.

Based on current electricity rates in Japan and assuming gasoline prices of ¥150 per liter ($6.20 per gallon), Hashimoto estimates Japanese EV owners will save ¥70,000-¥100,000 ($773-$1,100) per year, assuming average annual driving of 6,200 miles (10,000 km).

That amounts to 5-year fuel savings of about ¥400,000 ($4,416). But Mitsubishi's Li-ion battery supplier, GS Yuasa Corp., does not envision battery costs dropping to ¥1.0 million-¥1.5 million ($11,000-$17,000) until 2015.

Still, if the auto maker can make the numbers work and sizable government incentives are passed on to consumers, the concept has potential at least in Japan, where Mitsubishi research indicates 90% of motorists drive less than 25 miles (40 km) per day.

“We believe a 160-km (100-mile) range would be enough for most Japanese customers,” says Hashimoto. “And in Europe the average range is similar. Still, we feel we must extend the driving range in the future to 250 km (156 miles).”

In calculating range, Mitsubishi allows for three 132-lb. (60-kg) adults on board the 2,376-lb. (1,080-kg) i-MiEV. With air conditioning running, the car's range drops from 100 miles to 62 miles (100 km).

The i-MiEV battery is expected to retain 80% of capacity at the end of 10 years or 94,000 miles (150,000 km) of driving.

Like the batteries, the i-MiEV's motors and inverters currently are outsourced but could be made in-house in the future if volumes rise, following the example set by Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. Ltd., Hashimoto says.

“Meeting Prime Minister Hatoyama's 25% CO2 reduction target by 2020 will be difficult, since 90% of domestic car sales would have to be EVs or plug-in hybrids, so we suspect the government will offer strong incentives to customers interested in buying environmentally-friendly cars,” he says.

Subaru maker Fuji is on a different path.

“We are focusing on more-efficient gasoline and diesel engines, along with electric-vehicle technology, to enhance fuel economy,” says Yasuo Hiraoka, general manager-corporate planning for the auto maker's EV business group.

Subaru's EV program gained international attention in July when it launched the Stella. The auto maker plans to sell 170 units in fiscal 2009 and 200 in fiscal 2010, almost all in the Tokyo area, where it can provide engineering support.

Powered by a Li-ion battery and 47-kW (63-hp) motor, the model has a range of 56 miles (90 km), or 38 miles (60 km) with the air conditioning off. It produces 125 lb.-ft. (170 Nm) of torque which management claims is more powerful than that of the standard gasoline-powered Stella.

Other features include quick-charging of the car's battery to 80% of capacity in just 15 minutes and well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of just 40 g/km.

Researchers claim safety issues were resolved in a 3-year fleet test with Tokyo Electric Power Co. involving 40 Subaru R1e earlier-generation EVs driven 280,000 miles (450,000 km) during the test period. The auto maker also made a pair of R1e models available for several months of testing by the New York Power Authority in fall 2008.

Subaru unveiled the Stella concept in June 2008. Last April, the auto maker provided 15 units to the Japanese Environment Ministry for performance verification. Hiraoka says preliminary results were so encouraging Fuji began limited production and sales in July.

Priced at ¥4.7 million ($52,000), the Stella EV is produced at Subaru's Ohta plant northeast of Tokyo. Including subsidies and incentives, the net price to the consumer is as low as ¥2.6 million ($29,000). Mitsubishi's i-MiEV, which is marginally less expensive at ¥4.6 million ($51,000), qualifies for the same level discounts.

The auto maker currently is studying ways to incorporate partner Toyota's hybrid technology into one of its cars, but management warns it cannot readily adopt the Prius hybrid system's longitudinal engine layout to Subaru's horizontal design.

The Li-ion battery for the Stella is supplied by Automotive Energy Supply Corp., Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and NEC Corp.'s joint-venture battery supplier.

Hiraoka believes 10% of Subaru's 2020 sales will be EVs, meaning Fuji must sell 60,000 units to maintain current production volumes of 550,000-600,000 vehicles.

Analysts think this target, like Mitsubishi's, will be difficult to meet due to the auto maker's limited financial resources.

In the hybrid field, Subaru unveiled the Hybrid Tourer Concept at the Tokyo show. Powered by a 2.0L turbocharged boxer engine and pair of electric motors (one front, one rear), the car, like the Stella EV, runs off a Li-ion battery supplied by AESC.

The car is expected to be offered for sale as early as 2012, including in the U.S., although Hiraoka declines to confirm the timetable.