Sales Figures Begin to Shift Upward

Dealers have some numbers to be thankful for this holiday season.

Cox Automotive analysts just announced they expect consumer confidence to rise, which they forecast will result in accelerated vehicle sales.

 “With the U.S. election now in the rearview mirror, we may see vehicle sales finish the year in a strong position,” says Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “With less uncertainty in the market, consumer confidence is moving higher, which will likely increase consumer willingness to buy a new vehicle. Additionally, vehicle affordability is improving, thanks to higher incentives and falling auto loan rates, which increase consumers’ ability to buy.”

New-vehicle sales for November are expected to maintain a steady seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million, consistent with the sales pace observed in October, according to the Cox Automotive forecast. This represents an increase from last November’s SAAR of 15.5 million.

Dealers still have work to do, though.

Cox reports the sales volume is expected to reach 1.32 million, a decline of 1.3% from October but a 6.6% increase from one year ago, reflecting the differences in the number of selling days compared to last month and a year ago. There are 26 selling days this month, one less than last month and one more than last year.

As WardsAuto recently reported, dealers that save consumers as little as $50 to $150 per month will win more sales, according to Satyan Merchant, senior vice president of automotive for TransUnion.

As we’ve reported, Urban Science data shows much the same. Their data shows that just a $35 incentive — how it is tendered depends on the dealer — prompts car shoppers to take test drives. WardsAuto also reported on experts’ advice to spur sales. Advice includes telling consumers the manufacturer’s price of a vehicle but taking time to explain overall savings, including incentives, fuel and tax breaks.

Cox reports volume topped 3.0 million units at the start of November for the first time since the pandemic, which is higher by more than 677,000 units compared to one year ago. Days’ supply climbed to 85 at the start of November, up two days from the revised start of October count and 10 days higher than in November 2023.

Higher inventory levels are also pushing sales incentives higher, with new-vehicle sales incentives jumping to 7.7% of the average transaction price in October, marking the fifth consecutive month of higher incentives and the highest level since April 2021.