Asian Auto Sales Growth Expected to Top Global Rate

TOKYO – Asian auto sales, excluding China and Japan, are projected to grow 4.2% in 2015 to 9.1 million units, according to a new forecast by Fourin, a Nagoya, Japan-based automotive research firm.

In the January issue of its Asia Automotive Intelligence report, Fourin predicts India will lead sales growth on estimated deliveries of 3.4 million units, up from 2014, followed by South Korea at 1.65 million and Indonesia at 1.25 million, up 2.5% and unchanged.

In Thailand, Fourin projects sales growth of 8.7% to 1 million units, rebounding after several years of political instability dragged sales down more than 30% from 2012 peak levels.

Globally, Fourin is projecting vehicle demand of 90.3 million units in 2015, up 3.8%.

The China Assn. of Automobile Manufacturers, in its own 2015 forecast, predicts 8.0% domestic growth to 21.3 million units, up from 19.7 million last year.

The Japan Automobile Manufacturers’ Assn., while not issuing a 2015 forecast, reports sales of 5,562,887 units last year, up 3.5% from 2013.

Fourin projects regional production of 13.75 million units, up 6.4%, on the strength of rising volume in Indonesia and a modest recovery in Thailand.

By major market, the firm expects South Korean and Indian output to grow 1.1% and 2.8% to 4.5 million and 3.96 million units, respectively. Elsewhere, it is forecasting production to increase 15% in Thailand to 2.3 million units, 23.8% in Indonesia to 1.61 million, and 4.2% in Malaysia to 620,000.

Against this backdrop, Fourin reports vehicle-ownership ratio in the region in 2013 ranged from 4.5 units per 1,000 people in Bangladesh to 400.1 in Malaysia and 386.3 in South Korea.

Fourin also says hybrid and electric-vehicle sales in Japan grew 25.0% over the first nine months of 2014 to 766,045 units, led by Toyota’s Aqua hybrid with 182,344. That was more than the combined sales of the second- and third-ranked hybrids, the Honda Fit (92,947) and Toyota Prius (80,980).

For the first nine months of 2014 in South Korea, the firm says, hybrid sales increased 13.5% to 24,942 units and EV deliveries spiked 656.7% to 701. Toyota and Lexus brands accounted for 20.5% of the hybrid total, but Hyundai’s Grandeur HG hybrid was the top-selling model on deliveries of 9,768 units.