August U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Miss Expectations

U.S. sales in August disappointed by finishing well below expectations, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate falling below the same year-ago total for the fourth time in six months.

Raw volume was down for only the third time this year, and the year-to-date total through August remained slightly above (0.5%) year-ago. But considering the last four months of 2015 were exceptionally strong, August’s results cast more doubt that 2016 will finish ahead of last year’s record 17.38 million units.

Sales totaled 1.506 million units for a daily selling rate of 57,918, 3.4% below August’s 2015’s 59,981 – 26 selling days both periods.

Even though August had the same number of selling days as last year, the year-ago month had an extra weekend, which typically are high-volume parts of the week. So it is not surprising volume was down from year-ago.

Seasonal adjustments take into account such nuances as extra weekends, and August’s SAAR makes the year-over-year comparison look worse.

Although early indicators seemed to suggest the month would finish at a 17 million-plus SAAR, August’s 16.9 million-unit total was well below July’s 17.8 million and year-ago’s 17.7 million. The year-to-date SAAR of 17.2 million matches the year-ago total. However, the final four months of 2015 averaged a 17.9 million-unit SAAR and that period could be the pinnacle of the record stretch of growth that began in mid-2009.

Among the top six automakers, which account for over three-fourths of the market and were to a large extent the bad spots in August’s otherwise robust results, only FCA US recorded a year-over-year gain. Even Honda, which has been posting mostly strong increases since the middle of last year on the strength of new products, recorded a decline of 3.8%.

Market leader General Motors was down 5.2% and Ford fell short of year-ago by a hefty 8.8%. Nissan broke a string of 41 consecutive increases with a 6.5% dip, and Toyota declined for the sixth straight month.

Daimler, Porsche, Jaguar Land Rover, Subaru and Volvo recorded year-over-year gains. That was not unusual for the latter three – though Subaru’s growth has started to flatten this year after four years of nearly constant double-digit gains. August marked Daimler’s third increase in four months following a long stretch of mediocre results.

Among other automakers, Kia’s sales declined 7.9%, only its second drop in the past 19 months. Additionally, BMW volume fell 7.2%, Hyundai was flat, Mazda – even with the new CX-9 on sale – declined 12.8%, Mitsubishi dropped 11.5% and Volkswagen/Audi was down 4.8%.

Cars tanked again – down 13.5%, and 8.8% year-to-date; with penetration hitting a new monthly low of 38.5%, compared with 43.0% in same-month 2015. Sales of light trucks increased 4.1% and are up 8.0% year-to-date.

All car segment groups recorded year-over-year declines in August, with Middle Cars falling the most (22.5%) and market share for the once-dominant sector finishing at 14.1%, down from like-2015’s 17.6%.

All truck groups posted gains in August, with some segments posting big upticks such as Small Pickups (39.2%), Large SUVs (21.2%) and Large Vans (17.6%). Luxury truck segments combined for a 16.9% increase, while Luxury Cars declined 10.6%.

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