Economist: SUV Sales Will Hold Ground

It will be more of the same in 2006, say economists for the U.S. Big Three auto makers — and that includes the market for fullsize SUVs, predicts one.

Van Jolissaint, corporate economist for DaimlerChrysler Corp., tells the Society of Automotive Analysts the market for traditional SUVs and trucks will grow as a percentage of total sales.

Jolissaint's forecast is based on an oil price of about $55 per barrel. At that mark, he says, SUVs should account for 23.4% of the total market, up from 22.7% in 2005.

Overall truck sales should increase to 57.6% of the market, from 56.5% last year.

Small-car sales also will rise, from a 13.1% share to 13.4%, he says. But that gain will come from a drop in standard-car sales penetration, which Jolissaint has declining to 18% this year from 19.2% in 2005.

All three of the economists, including GM's Mustafa Mohatarem and Ford's Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, say 2006 will be on a par with 2005 when it comes to vehicle sales in the U.S., with only a slight softening of the market expected.