February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast: Market Will Hit 17.0 Million SAAR

A forecast by Wards Intelligence calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.30 million light vehicles in February.

The forecasted daily sales rate of 53,981 over 24 days is 2.2% lower than same-month 2017 (also 24 days).

The forecast 17.4% DSR gain from January (25 days) is greater with the 3-year average change between the two months, 16.9%

The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 17.0 million units, lower than the first month of 2018 (17.1 million) and February 2017 (17.3 million).

Inventory increased slightly from December through January, despite sales volume finishing above year-ago levels and estimated production for the U.S. market dropping. Stock ended January at 3.85 million units, equating to an 84 days’ supply, same as like-2017.

February is anticipated to end with a 73 days’ supply, less than year-ago’s 74, but still higher than necessary for market trends. Automakers will continue to adjust production levels, and Wards Intelligence expects a 2.6% decline in North American output for Q1 2018 compared with the Q1 2017.

General Motors is projected to sell approximately 227,000 cars and light trucks this month, down 4.2% from year-ago. GM will account for 17.6% of February deliveries. Two-month volume will be 1.7% behind like-2017.

Toyota’s deliveries will be up 7.3% from last year on 187,000 units. This pushes the automaker into second place with a 14.4% share, a jump from 13.2% in like-2017. Its 2-month tally is expected rise 11.6% above same-period 2016.

Ford is forecast to decline 8.3% to 186,000 units, resulting in a LV share of 14.3% vs. 15.3% the year before. Year-to-date, sales will decline 7.6%.

The forecast calls for FCA sales to reach 148,000 LVs with an 11.1% decline in sales. Market share drops from 12.6% prior-year to 11.4%. January-February sales will be 11.9% less than year-ago.

Nissan’s deliveries should decrease 2.8%, resulting in 132,000 sales in February. The automaker’s year-to-date total is forecast 3.0% above prior-year.

Honda is expected to see a 2.7% decline to 118,000 units sold. The jump in February sales will leave its 2-month total 2.3% less than like-2017.

Hyundai-Kia will sell about 90,000 vehicles, leaving the group down 5.7% for the month and 6.0% year-to-date.

Sales for the top seven auto groups will decline 4.0% in February, but the rest of the industry will jump 8.6% combined.

Projected February LV sales would bring industrywide year-to-date deliveries to 2.45 million units, a 0.7% decline from same-period 2017. Wards Intelligence currently is forecasting 16.4 million LV deliveries in full-year 2018.

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