Forecast: 18 Million SAAR Streak to Continue in December

December light-vehicle sales will reach an 18.04 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the latest WardsAuto forecast, resulting in the first ever 4-month streak above 18 million units.

Volume is set to hit 1.706 million units for a daily rate of 60,941 over the month’s 28 selling days, 5.8% above like-2014’s 57,621 (26 days). This will be a record high for December and the highest for any month since July 2005’s 1.8-million.

The 28 selling days comes from the industry practice to end each year on the first business day of January, so sales made through Monday, Jan. 4, are counted in the December tally. A high number of selling days, five weekends, and holiday and end-of-the-month sales incentives are the primary factors in the exceptionally high volume.

The light-vehicle total includes 700,000 cars, 0.9% below prior-year. Light-truck sales, up 20.5% from December 2014, cover 1,092,000 of the vehicle count. The December light-truck number falls just behind the record 1,092,925 units in July 2005, but this is the only other time it will surpass 1 million in a month.

At the end of November, dealer stocks of trucks were 8.6% above year-ago. With car inventory down 6.7% from November 2014, trucks likely will surpass 60% sales penetration in December. Luxury-truck inventory heading into December, typically a strong month for luxury vehicles, should be enough to handle demand no matter how strong.

Looking forward, vehicle stock will continue to follow the trend in demand. Car inventory at the end of December will sit around 1.41 million units, down 14.2% from year-ago. Supplies of light trucks may be strained by high sales, but will end the month 0.9% ahead of last year at 1.86 million vehicles.

Imported models will hit a 57-month high penetration rate, accounting for 24% of sales in the month. North American manufacturers are producing at over 95% capacity utilization in the fourth quarter, so OEMs will need to rely more on imports to meet the heavy demand in December.

General Motors is forecast to sell 307,000 LVs in December, resulting in an 18.0% share. The 10,955 daily selling rate (DSR) is 3.8% above same-month 2014. The automaker’s 12-month total, 3,098,873, will be up 5.6%.

Toyota will come in at second place for the month, with 238,000 units and a 13.9% share. DSR, at 8,487, is up 2.6%. Full-2015 should reach 2,499,000 units, 5.3% better than year-ago.

Following closely behind Toyota in the monthly result is Ford, with a 13.8% share and 236,000 LVs in December. Ford is expected to sell an average of 8,417 units over each of the 28 sales days, resulting in a 2.0% improvement over like-2014. Annual sales will grow 5.6% to 2,553,000.

FCA US will see the greatest gains from last year with a 12.3% rise in daily sales, equating to 231,000 units for the month. January-December deliveries will total 2,244,000 LVs, jumping 8.1% from same-period 2014.

Honda is forecast to sell 152,000 cars and light trucks in December, up 2.7% from the like-2014 DSR. Nissan is expected to rise 5.5% to 133,000 units. Hyundai-Kia should see significant growth from year-ago, gaining 7.3% with 127,000 sales.

Light-vehicle deliveries for full-year 2015 will accumulate to 17.459 million units, topping the current record of 17.35 million units set in 2000. The 2015 number is 6.2% greater than the 16,435,226 LVs sold in 2014. WardsAuto predicts 2016 to beat this year’s total, but by a smaller percentage.

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