Forecast: SAAR Expected to Remain Above 17 Million in October

A WardsAuto forecast calls for October U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, making it the sixth consecutive month above 17 million.

The 17.5 million-unit SAAR would be higher than the 17.2 million recorded year-to-date through September and an 11-year peak for the month.

The report is calling for 1.4 million light vehicles to be delivered over 28 selling days. The resulting daily sales rate of 49,982 units represents 6.0% improvement over same-month year-ago (over 27 days), but a 12.9% month-to-month drop from September (25 days) when the DSR was boosted to 57,390 from Labor Day sales incentives.

LV inventory ended September at 3.41 million units, 3.4% above year-ago and a 3.3% rise from August. Days’ supply at the end of September rose less than usual from prior-month. At 59 days, the result was significantly less than year-ago’s 64. 

Also, with less ’15-model stock, automakers and dealers will need to test their pricing power with the new model year, and incentives should lighten up for the time being.

Counteracting some inventory and incentive setbacks, as Halloween falls on a Saturday this year, the regular work week is open for adults to shop. Also, the October selling period extends into November due to the month ending on a weekend. Thus, month-end activity is expected to exceed normal levels.

General Motors is forecast to sell some 257,000 light vehicles in October, for a 13.3% gain on 2014 and an 18.4% share. The 10-month total would reach 2,557,000, up 5.0% from like-2014. GM’s DSR should hit 10,052, 9.3% better than last year. 

Ford is expected deliver near 206,000 LVs in the month, resulting in a 8.8% gain in daily sales and a 14.8% market share. The October number brings the year-to-date total 5.6% above like-2014 to 2,135,000.

Fiat Chrysler’s daily sales is expected to rise 5.5% from last year to 6,246 units. Monthly volume of 184,000 LVs, would give the automaker 13.2% share. The 10-month sales total, 1,828,000, is 6.6% above year-ago.

Toyota deliveries may rise just 1.0% on a volume of 189,000 units, equating to a 7,776 DSR and 13.5% share.

Honda is forecast to improve 7.2% over year-ago, with more than 134,000 deliveries.

Hyundai Group should see the greatest year-over-year gain in daily sales this month, with forecast volume of 110,220 vehicles equating to 12.1% growth from year-ago’s DSR.

At forecast levels, year-to-date LV sales through October would come to 14.4 million units, up 5.5% over same-period 2014.

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