July U.S. Sales Soar to 17.5 Million SAAR

U.S. light-vehicle sales surged above expectations in July, posting a 17.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, and lifting the year-to-date SAAR to 17.0 million, up from 16.2 million a year ago.

July’s SAAR also was significantly higher than June’s 16.9 million units and same-month 2014’s 16.4 million. (Note that the factors used to the determine the SAARs  were revised by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the period of January 2012 through June 2015. Thus, some previously reported monthly totals have changed.)

Volume in July reached 1.504 million units for a daily selling rate of 57,845, 5.3% above like-2014’s 54,946 – 26 selling days both periods.

Based on initial estimates derived from third-party sources, fleet volume declined year-over-year for the third straight month, while deliveries to retail customers equaled one of the highest gains this year.

The same pattern ongoing throughout the year continued in July, with trucks (especially CUVs) leading the volume gain, while cars posted weak results, including a second straight year-over-year decline and fourth shortfall this year.

In fact, if not for some apparent fleet volume and inventory-culling measures by a few automakers that lifted Middle Cars slightly above year-ago, all car groups would have recorded year-over-year declines for a second straight month in July, a sharp contrast to the 59 straight increases from trucks.

July light-truck deliveries increased 12.3% from like-2014, and penetration rose to nearly 57% from year-ago’s 53%.

CUVs not only surged to a 17.3% year-over-year increase in July, but market penetration also totaled 30.2%, the first month ever above 30% and the fifth time this year posting an all-time high.

By segment, Middle CUVs, which account for over half of CUV volume, increased deliveries a comparatively lukewarm 5.4% over year-ago. Small and Small Luxury CUVs were up 65% and 38%, respectively, and together shared 4.9% of July’s LV sales, compared with 3.2% in same-month 2014.

Spurred by General Motors, Large CUVs increased 21.7% from July 2014.

GM’s Large CUV increase appeared to be an offset to combined sales of its Large/Large Luxury SUVs, which have declined four consecutive months and are down 3% year-to-date.

Weakness in the segment at GM caused total SUV sales to record generally flat results compared with July 2014 and market penetration fell to 7.2% from 7.5%.

However, GM’s 27.9% increase in deliveries of its Large Pickups lifted the segment to a 12.0% gain and increased penetration to 12.3% from year-ago’s 11.5% and June’s 11.2%.

Sales of large trucks, including luxury vehicles, increased 5.9% from July 2014, and penetration rose to 19.3% from 19.2%. The large-truck increase was a nice rebound from a June decline that ended 15 straight increases. However, it was uneven across segments - Large SUVs and Vans were down 24.0% and 14.0%, respectively - and perhaps aided by some spot incentives.

Nearly all automakers posted gains over July 2014, with only BMW, Daimler and Mazda down from year-ago. Despite losses by two luxury-vehicle leaders, sales of all luxury segments combined increased 5.5%, with CUVs up 33%.

Of the automakers recording gains, only Ford and Toyota were below the industry average.

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