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The biggest global economic calamity in the last 80 years has left the international auto industry facing a new world order, the reverberations of which are expected to be felt for years to come.

A recent study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers forecasts global vehicle production this year will fall to 54 million units, before gaining momentum in 2010. But just four years later, the industry will see a seismic shift when a majority of cars will be built in emerging markets, the analysts say.

Major auto makers were blindsided by the financial storm that hit full force in October 2008, as worried consumers held tight to their pocketbooks and banks made credit almost impossible to obtain. Yet, few had any notion of how bad the consequences would be.

One year later, there are signs the fractured automotive industry is gaining traction, led by fundamental improvements in China, primarily on the strength of government stimulus; Germany, with its benchmark vehicle-scrappage program; and Brazil, with its major manufacturing base and well-capitalized banks.

Among the vehicle markets most negatively affected was the U.S., where the former General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC declared bankruptcy this summer, both to emerge weeks later as new companies. Chrysler Group LLC now is owned 20% by Italy’s Fiat Auto Group.

While the industry benefited from the U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers” stimulus program in July and August, September’s total light-vehicle sales fell nearly 39% from the prior month, marking a near 30-year low. Most analysts agree although the country’s economy is beginning to stabilize, the recovery won’t be felt by the auto industry until at least 2011.

Export-dependent Japan also found itself at low tide, sending already stagnating car sales tumbling to record lows. Adding to the industry’s jitters is an aging population with little need for new vehicles and a younger generation with little interest in owning cars at all.

The government in April began offering up to ¥250,000 ($2,789) in subsidies to buyers replacing older cars with new, low-emission vehicles as part of the country's largest-ever economic stimulus package. The incentive plan and a turnaround in exports are said to be helping the market slowly return to growth.

Toyota Motor Corp. reportedly has asked the new government to extend the car subsidies through March 2012. The auto maker is raising its 2009 global sales forecast 3% to 6.7 million cars and boosting production 8% to 6.45 million units, seen as a sign of a nascent recovery in worldwide vehicle demand.

Western European auto makers, though hard-hit by the global recession, particularly in Italy, Spain and the U.K., were kept from sliding full-tilt into crisis by vehicle-scrappage and other government incentive programs led by Germany and France. Germany’s car sales jumped 40% in May, alone.

But while the region’s economy is gaining strength, the International Monetary Fund in early October warned recovery will be “slow and fragile.” The good news is the current year is expected to represent the low point for exports and inventory.

In Eastern Europe, Russia, last year’s darling among key emerging markets, arguably suffered the greatest upheaval. New- and used-car sales plummeted 55% in first-half 2009 to 743,000, including imported vehicles, forcing Ford Motor Co. and GM to shutter their plants temporarily.

OAO AvtoVAZ, the country’s largest car maker, 25% owned by Renault SA, reported losing RR19.4 billion ($655.4 million) in the period and is seeking life support from both the state and Renault to keep its aging Lada plant running.

Although the industry’s September deliveries saw a slight uptick from August, albeit down 52% compared with year-ago, “clearly the automotive market continues to have a very difficult year, and we are not seeing signs of this improving in the fourth quarter,” David Thomas, chairman of the Association of European Businesses’ Automobile Manufacturers Committee, says in a statement.

PwC expects Russian vehicle sales to decline as much as 60% for the total year, to between 1.3 million and 1.6 million units, if the state does not act fast. Heavy job losses, salary cuts and the lack of affordable car loans are blamed for one of the worst years for the industry.

And although the government has launched a program that includes a subsidy to banks for lowering the cost of loans, analysts says credit remains too tight for the plan to work.

“I haven’t seen much effect,” says Ingvar Sviggum, vice president-marketing sales and service for Ford of Europe, in a conference call with reporters and analysts.