November U.S. LV Sales Surge to 6-Year-High SAAR

November U.S. light-vehicle sales soared above expectations, finishing at a long-time high 16.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.

The surge indicates more sales may have been postponed than originally thought during the government shutdown in October. WardsAuto initially estimated a 2% loss in volume, but the loss appears to be double that.

November’s hefty volume also could mean the typical promotions and incentives offered during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were stronger than usual this year.

Nevertheless, the month’s results returned sales close to the upward trend underway prior to hitting temporary bumps in September and October. The 6-month rolling SAAR, used to smooth out month-to-month volatility, was increasing by an average of 100,000 units per month from December 2012 through August before flattening at 15.6 million in September and October. November results pushed the 6-month total to 15.7 million.

The SAAR was highest for any month since 16.7 million in February 2007, and raised the year-to-date total to 15.5 million units, vs. 14.4 million in like-2012.

December’s SAAR could drop as low as 15.5 million units for the year to end at WardsAuto’s forecasted 15.6 million, rounded up from 15.55 million.

Automakers say deliveries to fleets were down from year-ago, while sales to individuals surged over last year. Fleet penetration likely will rebound in December, boding well for another 16 million-plus SAAR and the first time consecutive months finished above that level since October-November 2007.

Due to the month ending on a weekend, a quirk of the calendar that has happened only twice in November in the previous 10 years, one selling day in December was included in the month’s results. Thus, November’s raw volume of 1.238 million artificially was enhanced and topped like-2012 by 9%.

Adjusted for daily selling rates, November’s DSR of 47,629 over the month’s 26 selling days was 4.5% above year-ago’s 45,597 (25 days).

As typical for November, sales of luxury models and CUVs posted stronger market shares from the prior month. Typically, share for SUVs also turns up from October, but market penetration dropped to 7.1% in November from 7.3%.

In fact, SUV sales declined 9.5% from same-month 2012, and are nearly flat year-to-date.

A large part of the SUV decline is the shift of the redesigned ’13 Nissan Pathfinder to the CUV segment. But the Ford Explorer, Nissan Armada and Toyota Sequoia all posted declines from year-ago. Explorer’s shortfall was its first since November 2010.

Including luxury versions, large-truck sales spiked 14.6% over year-ago. CUVs were the biggest gainers among large trucks, rising 56.2%. The Large Pickup segment posted a 9.9% increase and is up 18.0% for the year through November.

Combined sales of luxury segments rose 6.9%, and share increased to 14.9% from 14.6% a year ago and 13.9% in October.

Sales of luxury brands increased 6.1% from year-ago, with share rising to 14.0% from like-2012’s 13.8%.

More-fuel-efficient engines in larger vehicles, combined with falling gasoline prices, caused small LVs to record their fourth straight year-over-year decline. Although sales of small CUVs were up 31.5%, it was not enough to offset a 3.7% decline in small cars and a 24.0% drop in SUVs.

Biggest gainers among major automakers were Chrysler (11.4%), General Motors (9.3%), Nissan (6.5%) and Toyota (5.9%). 

Daimler, Jaguar-Land Rover, Mitsubishi and Subaru each posted double-digit increases over November 2012. Subaru’s 3.0% market share was its highest ever for any month and, at 2.7% year-to-date, is heading for its best calendar-year penetration.

BMW, Honda, Mazda, Porsche, Volvo and Volkswagen Group each posted declines from like-2012. VW’s decline was its fifth straight in spite of its Audi luxury brand recording its 24^th straight increase in November.

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