Pollster Issues Sunny Forecast for Oz New-Car Market

A survey of Australians’ long-term intentions to buy new cars signals the 2014 market may build on last year’s record-breaking result.

The Roy Morgan Research survey finds long-term plans to purchase a new car finished 2013 on a high note with 2.33 million Australians saying they plan to do so in the next four years. This is 4.8% higher than a year earlier and amounts to more than 100,000 additional motorists in the market.

In the short term, about 647,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next year, a 1% increase over December 2012. Toyota remains the most-considered brand, with one in every four buyers setting their sights on one of its vehicles.

Perhaps reflecting General Motors’ decision to end Australian vehicle production, the Roy Morgan poll finds Mazda moving into second place, overtaking GM Holden, with a consideration rate of almost 17%.

Among luxury brands, the big mover has been Audi, with close to 6% of the market considering one of its models – a dramatic 64% increase over the last 12 months.

Roy Morgan Research Automotive Group Account Director Jordan Pakes says most of last year’s 2.2% increase in sales to a record 1,136,227 units came from the private-buyer market, which climbed 8.1% to 583,312.

“This high private-sales figure is not totally unexpected, with both long- and short-term new-car intention metrics hitting record heights earlier in 2013,” Pakes says in a statement.

Because short- and long-term intention metrics are up from year-ago, interest rates are low and stable and the ASX200 (stock-market index) is comfortably above the 5,000 mark, marginal growth in 2014 looks likely, he says.

“Continued growth of the affluent 50-plus sector (the only major age bracket in Australia that is growing) also bodes well.”

But Pakes says factors working against the market include ever-increasing gasoline prices, rising unemployment, and softening consumer and business confidence.

“Furthermore, the lower Aussie dollar makes it more expensive for brands to import cars and, as a result, harder for them to offer cash-equivalent incentives/deals,” he says.