U.S. Forecast: Downward Trend Continues in May

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.53 million light vehicles in May.

A daily sales rate of 61,195 units over 25 days represents a 3.3% decline from like-2016 (24 days). The DSR is 12.3% above the prior month, slightly less than the 3-year average change between the two months of 14%.

The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales at 16.79 million units in May, compared with year-ago’s 17.11 million and April’s 16.81 million mark.

Automakers ended April with light-vehicle inventory of 4.14 million units, 6.5% above year-ago, and about 10% higher than WardsAuto’s estimate for what would be optimum for the month.

April days’ supply increased to 76 from 72 the prior month and from 70 in like-2016. The forecast indicates a 67 days’ supply at the end of May, well above 61 days year-ago.

General Motors is forecast to deliver 247,000 light vehicles, a 1.5% decline in daily sales vs. year-ago. The market’s No.1 automaker should account for a 16.1% share, compared with 17.2% of April LV sales. Year-to-date, sales will be down 0.3%.

The report calls for Ford’s LV DSR to slip 3.5% from year-ago to 232,000 deliveries. Ford will grab 15.2% of the market compared with 14.7% in the prior month. Five-month volume will come in 3.9% below year-ago.

Toyota is expected to fall 6.1%. The forecasted 215,000 LV deliveries will give the automaker a 14.0% share of the market. January-May sales are expected to be 5.0% less than same-period 2016.

FCA is projected to come in fourth place with 12.5% share and 190,000 deliveries, down 5.5% from May 2016. The automaker’s year-to-date total is forecast 6.8% below prior-year.

Honda is expected to slip 3.2% to 148,000 units for the month. The forecast calls for Nissan to post a 3.0% decline from year-ago with 135,000 sales. Hyundai Group should see deliveries drop 5.8% to 131,000 LVs.

While each of the top seven auto groups are forecast to come in below year ago, the rest of the industry is expect to outsell May 2016 by 0.9% combined. Volvo and Jaguar-Land Rover will show the greatest growth rate in the month.

At forecast levels, May LV sales would bring year-to-date deliveries to 6.96 million units, down 1.8% from same-period 2016. WardsAuto is lowering its 2017 LV forecast to 17.1 million units from 17.3 million.

[email protected]