WardsAuto Boosts North American LV Production Outlook Through 2014

WardsAuto is increasing its North American light-vehicle production forecast for 2013-2014 after raising expectations that sales will grow in the same period.

A recent WardsAuto U.S. LV sales outlook for 2013 calls for 15.4 million units, while deliveries also are forecast to climb higher than initial expectations in 2014. Mexico’s sales are running above forecast as well and are projected to continue the trend through next year.

The new LV forecast for the remaining nine months of 2013 calls for annual output to increase by 105,000 units, with gains at Honda, Chrysler and Ford overwhelming cuts at General Motors and Volkswagen. Total North American production is expected to reach 15.95 million this year, up 3.7% from 2012.

Additional output at Honda for 2013 applies to most of its facilities, but especially at its Lincoln, AL, plant for the Pilot large cross/utility vehicle and Odyssey minivan.

Chrysler’s gains are for cars at Belvidere, IL, and Sterling Heights, MI, and for the new Jeep Cherokee SUV launching output in June at the Toledo North plant. The Cherokee is replacing the Jeep Liberty, which has been out of production since August.

Increases at Ford are centered on F-Series pickups in 2013.

VW’s cuts mainly apply to the Jetta in Puebla, Mexico. WardsAuto already had incorporated an adjustment for overbuilds of the VW Passat, produced in Chattanooga, TN, prior to the auto maker’s recent announcement it was temporarily ending the third shift started at the end of last year. That shift might not resume until VW starts building a Passat-based CUV at the plant in 2015.

GM’s reductions are related to the expectation it will struggle to maintain market-share gains made so far this year, and from some over-production dating back to 2012 that is just now catching up with the auto maker.

The latest WardsAuto forecast raises North American production more than 200,000 units for 2014 to 16.48 million, up 3.3% from 2013.

Most of that will be at Chrysler, as demand for the Jeep Cherokee and Dodge Dart is expected to climb, in part because sales of the aged Avenger likely will fall off well before the model’s permanent demise at the end of the year.

Production increases in 2014 also are aimed at GM, Honda and VW, while some paring has been done to Hyundai, Mercedes and Nissan.

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