Navigating the Future of Mobility in 2024

The transportation sector is in the midst of transformative changes – from the transition to shared mobility to the progression toward zero emissions, from the digital transformation of fleet management to the evolution of autonomous driving.

As we edge closer to 2024, it’s crucial to not only reflect on recent developments but also understand the trends and innovations that could shape the future.

Electrification is a key trend that’s set to continue its ascent in 2024. EVs’ increased share of the new-vehicle market means EVs are close to the tipping point of becoming an early-majority technology (typically considered to be between 15% and 18% of market share [see chart, below]).   

This also means a surge in electric fleets, driven by lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and tax incentives. Challenges such as charging infrastructure and vehicle resale values remain, as well as higher-than-expected repair costs leading Hertz, for example, to slow down its electrification rates. But the overall trajectory for EVs is one of rapid growth and market penetration.

Autofleet chart Picture2

The progress of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has been remarkable. The most notable development was the license given to Waymo and Cruise to run a fully fledged taxi service in San Francisco.

Cruise dropped the ball on safety concerns, leading to increased regulatory scrutiny and is now regrouping, but Waymo announced expansion plans to Los Angeles and started collaborating with Uber in Phoenix.

Add to that Tesla’s new v.12 FSD (full self-driving) rollout, and companies such as Keolis being certified to deploy Level 4 autonomous shuttles and AVs seem to be moving in the right direction.

Robotaxis or not, some of the old rivalry between taxi companies and the gig-driving ride-hailing giants such as Uber and Lyft seems to have turned a corner. After last year’s presumably successful pilot in New York and San Francisco, more taxi companies have signed partnership agreements with Uber. It’s a win-win proposition: leveraging Uber’s brand and install base to generate demand, while providing a ride-ready fleet and drivers in return.

Another marked trend for taxi companies is the attempt to secure more reliable and stable income sources by securing long-term contracts. Aside from the traditional corporate contracts that play a major role in some companies’ revenue streams, taxi companies are turning their eyes to specialty ride contracts. These include student and school transport, non-emergency medical transport, paratransit services and more.

This transition requires taxi companies to adopt new solutions that focus on sophisticated optimizations, dispatching and routing technologies. Especially those capable of scheduling and planning pre-booked rides to ensure arrival times while being able to handle last-minute changes or ASAP ride requests.

The rental, leasing and car-sharing sectors have rebounded and will continue to grow. The focus likely will be on digital solutions, subscription models and a preference for eco-friendly vehicles.

Sustainability concerns around car ownership (especially when a car-sharing option is viable), coupled with ever-improving services and higher initial vehicle costs (for EVs especially) seem to promise continued growth. And those players stepping up their digital game – implementing automation and optimization to lower costs and improve efficiency and service levels – stand to gain the most.     

Despite current challenges, micromobility could find its niche in urban transport. New business models such as subscriptions, leasing and attempts at data monetization are yet to bear fruit, but the number of rides is growing consistently, and the many mergers in the industry may allow companies to reach better utilization rates as competition shrinks.

One bright spot for micromobility seems to involve last-mile delivery services, with Amazon continuing to expand its micromobility hubs in Europe and the U.S., relying on cargo bikes and other less traditional means of transportation to lower its carbon emissions.

The growing e-commerce sector will continue to drive innovations in last-mile delivery and courier services. Alongside micromobility, we can anticipate more innovations including autonomous delivery methods, drones and advanced route optimization technologies.

This coming year will see more and more delivery providers moving away from traditional dispatching systems to new real-time delivery management solutions that provide much better control with accurate ETAs. This also will enable delivery companies to incorporate on-demand delivery and same-day changes and provide much more operational flexibility and better customer service.   

As we look toward 2024, the mobility and transportation sectors seem poised for transformative growth. This is the culmination of the processes that have unfolded over the past few years.

Kobi Eisenberg CEO and co-founder

Implementing advanced analytics for route optimization and fleet management can significantly enhance efficiency. And across the entire industry issues such as the adoption of electric vehicles require accurate planning to support growth and set a course for a more efficient, sustainable and customer-centric transportation landscape.

Kobi Eisenberg (pictured, above left) is the co-founder & CEO of Autofleet, a leading optimization platform for fleets.