Conservative Q1 Output Plan Set

After flip-flopping on a planned 25,000-unit November-December output increase, automakers are taking a more guarded approach to the new year with 4,430,500 cars and trucks scheduled for assembly in January-March, just 1.0% ahead of like-2015’s 4,3487,600 completions.

That includes a planned 0.7% shortfall in car production, to 1,775,700 units from 1,787,400, accompanied by a 2.1% boost in truck assemblies, to 4,430,500 vs. 4,387,600 vehicles a year earlier.

Driving the truck production boost is continued strong demand for light-duty units, production of which is slated to more than offset a 13.5% pullback by the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers that are taking a conservative approach in the face of an order slowdown.

If that slowdown, attributed in part to a shortfall in available drivers, eases or reverses course, truck makers stand ready to quickly boost output. 

Overall, first-quarter 2016 will see the FCA-Ford-General Motors triumvirate build to only 99.6% of the prior-year tally. While transplant output is slated at 103.3% of like-2015 and the medium and heavy producers are slated to build just 86.4% of year-ago volume.

Ford currently appears to be on an aggressive track with its first-quarter output targets.

Although the Dearborn automaker has yet to officially release a January-March schedule, WardsAuto forecasts 816,200 vehicles for completion in Ford’s North American plants based on conversations with officials. That would net Ford a 13.4% gain over like-2015’s 719,800 completions thanks to a 25.4% rise in truck assemblies that more than offsets a forecast 7.3% decline in cars.

The industry’s more conservative Q1 outlook follows a November performance now estimated to be 32,100 units short of the 1,478,100-unit target set a month ago, after industry planners said they were adding to 25,600 units to November-December schedules. December now is pegged at 1,258,400 vehicles, or 7,500 less than previously planned.
Thus, October-December production is set to close at an estimated 4,389,900 units, closer to the 4,404,000 assemblies on the books at the start of October than the 4,414,900  “booked” in early November.

Despite the recent trimming, the fourth-quarter close is still strong enough to net the industry a new output benchmark of 17,906,100 units in 2015, a 2.8% gain on the prior peak of 17,415,500 established a year earlier.   

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