N. America Q3 Plan Sees Modest Uptick

Was the modest third-quarter production plan set in place month ago a bit too modest?

Possibly, as some 25,700 car and truck assemblies have been added to the plan in the past 30 days, bringing to 4,281,700 units the number of vehicle completions booked in the quarter.

While the latest tally is up from the 4,256,000 units planned as of June 5, a figure that was less than the 4,295,800 assemblies preliminary reports suggested would be scheduled, it still is 4.4% less than the 4,477,600 built in like-2016.

The Q3 industry increase largely offsets a 24,200-unit downward revision in the April-June tally that includes an estimated shortfall of 19,400 vehicles in the preliminary June count and 5,600 units in the final May tally.

The third-quarter gain is not a direct offset to the Q2 shortfall.

For example, 63% of the Q3 increase is “unofficial” and based on a 16,100-unit gain in WardsAuto’s forecast for Ford, which is still finalizing its third-quarter program, while the automaker is projected to end April-June some 4,200 units above plan.

In contrast, FCA is expected to complete second-quarter output some 14,100 units below schedule, while adding only 3,000 units to its July-September slate.

General Motors, which wrapped up Q2 output with an estimated 4,400-unit overbuild, is boosting its July-September schedule by just 1,500 vehicles. 

Modest individual increases elsewhere, ranging from 2,000 units at Toyota to 1,000 at Subaru, account for the rest of the industry gain.

Trucks, including 100 units among the dedicated medium- and heavy-duty producers, account for all but 1,200 units of the increase.

Ford is forecast to build some 18,900 more light trucks in July-September than were slated a month ago, but that was partially offset by a 2,800-unit cut in car assemblies.

At Nissan, a 1,500-unit increase in car production is offset by a like reduction in truck production, while BMW is slated to build 1,000 fewer CUVs.

Although the industry’s Q3 increase is spread across all three months, August will see the largest gain, 10,700 vehicles, while July production is pegged for a 5,600-unit boost and 9,400 assemblies have been tacked on to the September plan.  

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