NA Output: Q4 Loss Is Q1 Gain

After closing out 2016 production at a record 18,169,000 cars and trucks, automakers have upped their January-March 2017 plans by 32,200 units to 4,710,500, the second-best first-quarter slate in history behind the 4,811,021 vehicles turned out in like-2000.

However, a closer look reveals that much of the added Q1 volume likely resulted from production planners postponing previously scheduled December completions into January-March.

Estimated December output now is set at 1,296,200 vehicles, some 23,100 lower than had been scheduled.

And with the final November tally 2,300 below earlier estimates, the industry’s fourth-quarter shortfall of 25,400 units equals 79% of the January-March boost, meaning automakers have actually increased their output plans by a net 6,800 vehicles over the combined Q4-Q1 output level in place a month ago.

Also, the first-quarter gains are mostly concentrated in March, where output plans have increased by 25,300 units compared with the prior slate, giving the manufacturers additional time for adjustments as needed.

January sees a smaller 12,000-unit gain to help fill immediate inventory needs, but 5,100 units have been trimmed the February plan.

Overall, truck output of 3,041,700 in January-March is 31,700 units higher than it was a month ago, mostly offsetting the estimated 40,700-unit Q4 shortfall

Car production ended Q4 at an estimated 15,300 units above plan and is virtually unchanged in Q1 with just a 500-unit boost.

However, not all vehicle producers have boosted Q1 production plans.

General Motors has increased its January-March plan by 39,000 vehicles, adding 42,000 truck assemblies and trimming 3,500 cars, while Chrysler has back-peddled on its first-quarter slate to the tune of 31,400 units.

Ford now is forecast to build 41,900 more vehicles in Q1, 94.3% of them trucks, while Honda and Toyota have trimmed Q1 plans by a combined 30,500 vehicles.

A lack of orders also has prompted the independent medium- and heavy-duty truck manufacturers to lower January-March output plans by 15,500 units, 14,500 of them in the U.S.

That came on top of a 12,900-unit Q4 shortfall that saw output fall by 7,700 trucks in the U.S. and 5,000 in Mexico.

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