North American Auto Industry Sets Robust Q1 Slate

Hot on the heels of a stronger-than-expected 15.7% fourth-quarter gain, North American auto makers will kick off 2012 with a robust 10.2% first-quarter production increase.

Manufacturers have their sights set on building 3,797,600 cars and trucks in January-March, a 5-year high that bests prior-year’s 3,444,858 completions by more than 353,000 units, but falls 3.6% shy of the 3,938,932 vehicles built in first-quarter 2007.

Slow sales crimp Fiat 500 output.

Related document: North America Production Schedule Q1

Among the Detroit Three, Chrysler’s leading 18.7% Q1 increase includes a 36.0% boost in car assemblies compared with like-2011, when production of its all-new large cars and heavily revised midsize models still was in the launch phase.

One plant that won’t benefit from the hike in output is Chrysler’s Toluca, Mexico, facility, where production of the Fiat 500 is being dialed back to stem swelling inventory and some workers are being transferred to other operations for an undisclosed period.

Ford’s relatively small 1.8% increase is due largely to flat light-truck output and the closing of its Canadian large-car plant when those rear-drive models were discontinued at the end of the ’11 model run. Led by the hot-selling Focus, Ford’s U.S. car program is slated for a 6.4% January-March gain.

Among the transplants, Volkwagen’s 27.2% increase not only reflects the popularity of the new Jetta sedan but also the launch of the re-engineered ’12-model Beetle, and rising Passat output at its new U.S. factory.

Led by the all-new ’12 M-Class, Mercedes’ Vance, AL, plant is set to build 24.7% more units in the first-quarter, while rival BMW prepares to increase cross/utility vehicle production at its Spartanburg, SC, facility by 26.1%.

Most Japanese auto makers are set to outpace year-ago’s Q1 production after reversing most of the major fourth-quarter output cuts announced a month ago in the wake of massive flooding in Thailand.

With flood-induced supply bottlenecks being alleviated faster than first anticipated, Honda now plans to build 4.2% more vehicles in Q4 than it built in like-2010 when demand was soft.

Honda North American operations will begin work in January on a Q1 slate already pegged at 9.2% ahead of year-ago and likely to increase as the auto maker continues to rebuild inventory.

Toyota plans to build 14.0% more cars and truck in January-March after revising its Q4 output plan to 10.1% above like-2010. The auto maker appears to have planned for a larger disruption from the Thailand disaster than actually occurred.

The latest Q4 revision puts 2011 production on track to reach 13,437,700 units, a 10.8% gain from 2010’s 12,153,600.

General Motors, Ford and Chrysler will account for a combined 57.2% of 2011 output, compared with 55.2% in 2010.

Transplants will represent 40.4% vs. 43.1% year-ago and dedicated medium- and heavy-duty truck makers 2.4% vs. 1.7%.

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